Saturday, December 29, 2012

The Experts’ Take on Facebook’s Valuation

Finally! After making a couple weeks’ worth of free fall feel like an eternity, shares of Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) have stabilized.

So, what are financial analysts thinking? Will the stock make a run from here? Well, Facebook�s underwriters are not allowed to post any research until 40 days after the IPO. This is known as the quiet period. However, several independent analysts have been offering their own research. Let�s take a look:

Is Facebook a Bargain at $26?

Brian Wieser, Pivotal Research Group: Wieser put a sell rating on Facebook on the day of the IPO, with a price target of $30. Wieser�s main concern is that Facebook is undergoing major transitions. One is a move toward getting business from large brands, and (of course) the other is the rapid move of traffic from the desktop to mobile platforms. As a result, Wieser believes there will be lots of volatility in the short- run.

Michael Pachter, Wedbush Securities: During the Facebook roadshow, Pachter criticized CEO Mark Zuckerberg for wearing a hoodie, calling it a sign of �immaturity.� However, Pachter still likes the stock and thinks it’s worth $44.

Carlos Kirjner, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.: Kirjner’s price target is $25, so there’s still more bottom to go. Yet, this projection seems high, considering Kirjner thinks Facebook will earn 65 cents in 2013. This translates into a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 40.

Mark Harding, JMP Securities: Harding put a price target of $37 on Facebook. Essentially, he is hopeful the company will find ways to substantially monetize its huge user base.

Eric Jackson, Ironfire Capital: On CNBC, Jackson says Facebook could �disappear� in five to eight years. He says history shows that major tech companies often fail to make major transitions. And Jackson thinks this will be the case with mobile.

Tom Taulli runs the InvestorPlace blog IPO Playbook, a site dedicated to the hottest news and rumors about initial public offerings. He also is the author of �The Complete M&A Handbook”, �All About Short Selling� and �All�About Commodities.� Follow him on Twitter at @ttaulli or reach him via email. As of this writing, he did not own a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

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