Tuesday, April 28, 2015

We Had a Good First 6 Weeks of 2012 – What’s Next?

I made the case last month, as I had in October, November and December 2011, that the risk of a major correction, predicted by so many, was completely off base. I noted that fears of Europe driving the world into another Great Recession were unfounded, that Greece, with the same GDP as Michigan, was unlikely to be the trigger for said event, and that U.S. private employers were lean and mean and ready to begin hiring once again if only we could keep our national government from providing so much incentive to remain unemployed and on the dole as to prevent workers from even seeking work. Despite the worst intentions of those who would create armies of expensive government employees, middlemen and administrators to give out benefits and entitlements, in fact the American private sector has become lean and mean and ready to hire again.

Fortunately for those of us willing to climb the proverbial and very real Wall of Worry, many (most?) investors continue to cling to their belief that this rally is a head-fake, that the country is headed to hell in a hand basket, and that "this time it's worse than ever before." I hear from them all the time when they tell me what an idiot I am after reading my articles on Seeking Alpha, ForexPro, GuruFocus or elsewhere.

As I wrote to a brilliant investor friend who was concerned that the institutional manipulation by Wall Street makes this time different, a viewpoint I didn't touch on in last month's issue: "It's true that HFT, program trading, dark pools, et al are new ways Wall Street has come up with to avoid transparency and middle the very people they claim to be on the same side as. But thus has it always been. Back in the 1920s it was bald-faced manipulation via "trust" companies, in the 1960s it was the crooked specialist system -- put in a trailing stop 2 points away and the stock would magically decline 2 points for one trade then magically recover by 1.98 with the next trade. We should always expect double-dealing from Wall Street.

"I don't ! know, but my guess is that the average holding period for the 76% of trading today dominated by institutions may be closer to 5 seconds, factoring in the millions daily that last a millisecond as well as the pension funds that hold for 6 months.

"But I really don't care. I don't have to compete with them, and I don'tcompete with them. While they are making millions of trades to make a sure penny each trade, I am buying quality under-loved companies too thinly traded, foreign or boring for them to bother with. My holding period may be 6 months, a year, or much longer. They can keep their approach; there is a whole universe of companies it isn't worth their while to manipulate or in which they might get caught on the wrong side and lose all their other ill-gotten gains.

"I'll still fight to get appropriate regulation of these yahoos, but we basically work different sides of the street so, while a flash crash will affect me for a couple of days, I can use Wall Street's foolishness and venality to my own advantage. You can try to fight 'em using their tools, you can join them, or you can ignore them. As much as possible, I choose the last course."

Our current portfolios reflect our optimism. But nothing goes straight up or straight down. Every day the market goes up, the more overloaded the boat is becoming on the "greed" side of the fear/greed equation: a gnawing sense on the part of many investors that they are missing something. And they have, of course. January 2012 enjoyed the largest January gain in history for both the Dow and the S&P 500. I believe people need time to digest these gains and that, for many, the temptation to grab whatever profits they can before what they see as the inevitable next slide down, means we will have a pullback.

Unlike many commentators, I see that "slide" as relatively slight and well-contained. Still, we have been placing ever-tighter trailing stops all during February. It doesn't matter that I see this as an excellent year; it matters that we ge! t ahead o! f the crowd our clients and avoid the falling knives investor panic creates. The catalyst for the decline could be something real, like soaring U.S. unemployment or terrible corporate earnings, or it could be a chimera like Greece defaulting or fear of Europe dragging us all into the morass. (Re the latter: the highest estimate I've ever seen show that Europe represents no more than 10% of the earnings of S&P 500 companies. We are competitors of the big Euro firms rather than suppliers or recipients of their sub-contracting. In addition, I read a great quote from Lazard Capital Markets' head of Product Strategy, Art Hogan, who noted, "Portugal is smaller than Greece. If Italy's economy was a dinner meal, then Greece and Portugal's combined would not be enough to leave the tip."

None of this means that one can simply buy and hold yet! "There is many a slip twixt cup and lip." Though I believe the year will end well, I expect thrills and spills along the way. Those facile fools who say things like, "As goes January, so goes the year," are repeating trite piffle that will doom them to lose even as we exit the year with a profit.

There are no short cuts to investing success. Yet every year people too lazy to do the hard analysis required to beat the market try to take short cuts like the "January Barometer." An up first five days of January means the year will be up? Dumb. The market rises roughly 70% of the time anyway (albeit not in Secular Bear years!) If you just said, "The market will rise every year," you'd be right about 7 out of 10 times (which is why perennial optimists get all the forecasting jobs on Wall Street). So to say, "The market will rise if January — especially the first five days of January — rises," is stating the obvious — but for the wrong reasons.

Since there is a January effect in most years, however, and since the market goes up most years, there is a strong correlation. But is it causative or merely correlative? I'd argue the latter. The fact that the first! five day! s of January are up, or even the whole month of January is up, doesn't mean the market is destined to outperform. The fact that the market is up most years, anyway, simply gives credence to throwing bones in a circle, reading tea leaves, or using astrology or the January Barometer to "predict" an up year. I think tea leaves, old bones, and the January Barometer are harmless distractions unless you take them seriously with serious money.

What you might want to note, instead, in support of an up market this year, is that there is a latent strain of optimism that runs through the American national consciousness. We believe in vast frontiers and the power of high technology, cosmetic surgery, and paying taxes up to the point of fairness to propel us ever forward. For that reason, we simply cannot abide this many down years in a row. American optimism and, more importantly, American entrepreneurialism, spurred by a complete revamping of the idiotic way we invite immigrants to our country, will be a better barometer than the date on the calendar every time.

Putting aside the January Barometer as unworthy of serious consideration as a predictive tool doesn't mean we should ignore the January effect. This is typically due to large asset inflows and/or year-end repositioning of portfolios from institutional investors. Big mutual funds and others hold what they have at year-end, hedging so they can hang on to whatever gains they have and get their bonuses for beating the benchmarks by .00001%. The New Year gives them a reason to get frisky again — after all, they'll have 50 weeks or so to undo any damage they do by taking big risks on small companies early in the year. (And those small companies just might provide good gains to create a cushion for mediocre performance the rest of the year.)

Then there's the self-fulfilling prophecy angle: Once the January effect became well known, investors who didn't want to miss out put cash into the market, thus confirming the hypothesis that the market ri! ses in Ja! nuary. There could even be an element of New Year's resolutions at work, as people resolve to save and invest more this year. And people often do get cost-of-living increases, raises, bonuses and retirement plan contributions at this time of year, all of which mean money that needs to be saved or invested.

I'm not one to look a gift horse in the mouth. If someone wants to give us a 10%-plus gain in six weeks, we'll take it. But we'll now tighten up our trailing stops so we still retain 8-9% if I'm correct and the market takes a breather here. There will always be other opportunities for those of us who don't choose to follow the market up and then right back down. I don't expect a correction to last more than a month or so, but I think it will be less than enjoyable for the group that wants to buy and hold, and I'll wager will only reinforce the stubborn view of those who believe we are doomed to enter a Great Depression. The former will give back a chunk of their profits, the latter will stay on the sidelines until the news is all rosy again. We think there's lots of money to be made between now and then! Place trailing stops on your stocks and see future articles for what we will be buying.

e-Commerce Stock Update - July 2013 (pt. 2) - Zacks ...

This is part two of our e-Commerce Industry Outlook. Click here to read part one.

Although retail e-Commerce is the segment that most of us are interested in, it is in fact just a part of the overall e-Commerce market. In fact, retailers and service providers generate just 4.7% and 3.0%, respectively of their revenues online, a slightly higher percentage than they did in the prior year. The U.S. Census Bureau categorizes these two segments as business-to-consumer.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the manufacturing sector is the largest contributor to e-commerce sales (49.3% of their total shipments), followed by merchant wholesalers (24.3% of their total sales). These two segments make up the business-to-business category.

This places the business-to-business category at 90% of total e-Commerce sales, with the balance coming from the business-to-consumer category. The latest numbers from the Bureau suggest that the fastest-growing segments were retail and wholesale. [All the above data from the U.S. Census Bureau relate to 2011, as published in May 2013]

The industry is evolving very rapidly, so data collection and evaluation are particularly difficult. Consequently, one has to rely largely on surveys by both government and private agencies.

In this section, we will discuss segments of the e-Commerce market than do not relate directly to the retail of goods, and discuss instead travel, payments, security and advertising.

Travel

The U.S. Commerce Department expects international travel to the U.S. to continue increasing over the next few years. Visitor volume is currently expected to increase 6-8% a year from 2012 to 2016 leading to a 49% increase in the number of users during the period.

Visitors from the Middle East are expected to be the slowest-growing (29%). South America, Asia and Oceania growth rates are expected to be comparable at 83%, 82% and 82%, respectively.

The fastest growth is expected to come from China (232%), Sou! th Korea (200%), Brazil (150%), Russian Federation (139%) and India (94%). Travel and tourism is one of the country's strongest industries, contributing a trade surplus in each of the last 20 years.

The top travel booking sites are Booking.com, Expedia.com, Hotels.com, Priceline.com, Kayak.com (acquired by Priceline), Travelocity.com, Orbitz.com and Hotwire.com. Since Booking.com and Kayak are part of Priceline (PCLN) and both Hotels.com and Hotwire.com part of Expedia (EXPE), this narrows down the top companies in the segment to Priceline, Expedia, Orbitz Worldwide (OWW) and Travelocity. However, there are several others worth considering that include Ctrip International (CTRP), MakeMyTrip (MMYT) and TripAdvisor (TRIP), which was spun off from Expedia.

The global travel market grew 4% in 2012 and is expected to grow another 2-3% this year. The Asia/Pacific region is expected to see the strongest growth (up 6%), followed by Europe and South America (mainly Brazil) at 2% each. North America (mainly U.S.) is expected to be flat this year. [World Travel Monitor 2012]

According to the April 2013 TravelClick North American Hospitality Review (NAHR), both occupancy and average daily rates (ADRs) in North America are seeing steady growth this year, with individual bookings (both leisure and business) doing better than group bookings. In the second quarter of 2013, total travel occupancy growth was 3.6% from last year with ADR growth even better at 3.8%.

Online travel agents (OTAs) are growing the fastest this year – up 13.7% in the first quarter, according to the TravelClick North American Distribution Review (NADR). The hotels' own websites were up 5.0%, with direct walk-ins and calls to the hotel growing 3.7%. The areas of weakness were the global distribution system used by travel agents and CRS (calls to a hotel's toll-free number).

Share of individual bookings-



Global corporate travel bookings were up 8.8% in April, according to Pegasus Solutions, which is the single largest processor of electronic hotel transactions. This is the highest volume growth through GDSs since August 2011.

Smartphones are playing a key role in travel purchases, especially for last minute purchases. eMarketer expects smartphone travel researchers in the U.S. to grow to 50 million or 40% of all digital travel researchers this year, with total U.S. mobile travel sales touching $13.6 billion.

The top site for travel content is TripAdvisor, visited by 60% of Americans when choosing a hotel. Google's (GOOG) YouTube is now growing in popularity and is the second in line, according to MMGY Global's 2013 Portrait of American Travelers study.

Another report by PhocusWright mentioned that when online penetration of the travel market reached 35% in any country, growth rates were likely to slow down to single-digits. The research firm mentioned that only the U.S., U.K. and Scandinavia had reached this level of penetration and most other markets across Europe, Asia and Latin America would continue to show good growth rates.

Payment Systems

With practically all market research indicating solid growth in e-Commerce sales over the next few years, online players are vying with each other to come out with convenient and secure payment solutions.

The FIS Mobile Wallet from Fidelity National Information Services Inc. (FIS) is basically a bar code reader that feeds information related to the purchase into the user's smartphone and uses it as a medium to transfer the information to the cloud. Online purchase of merchandise is also possible. The solution provides good security, since the transaction is carried out entirely in the cloud through the retailer's and banker's applications and personal information is not shared at the time of purchase.

QR code payments have already been made by most smartphone users in the U.S. an! d the tec! hnology is moving mainstream. However, the safety of the system comes at a price, which is the time it takes to complete a transaction. This is the reason that Google is still hanging on to its digital wallet.

Google's digital wallet allows a customer to make a payment by waving his mobile phone over a POS terminal. Other than the convenience of the whole thing, the main attraction being highlighted is the security of the payment channel, since neither the customer nor the retailer would be recording the personal information related to the customer. Adoption of the device, although it is some way off, will have a remarkable effect on the volume and value of mobile transactions, since it should increase the percentage of higher-value sales.

However, the cost of POS terminals is a downside to the system that could easily turn away retail partners. This is an evolving area and much could change over the next few years.

Visa (V) has also jumped on the bandwagon, claiming that its V.me is a digital wallet with a difference. Not only can it be used to make mobile contactless payments (bar code, QR code or NFC), but it can also be used for online checkout (it remembers card details from several providers).

The greatest success however is currently being enjoyed by eBay's Paypal, which has seen success at a large number of traditional retailers such as The Home Depot (HD) and Office Depot (OD). One drawback that remains is that although the system is itself secure, there is always a security risk for a buyer not used to dealing with Paypal, since it requires personal information.

Mobile banking is set to grow very strongly over the next few years, according to Juniper Research. The research firm estimates that a billion mobile devices (or 15% of the installed base) will be used for banking transactions by 2017, up from an expected 590 million at the end of this year. Most banks already offer at least one mobile banking offering, with some larger banks offering more tha! n one opt! ion. Messaging remains the most popular across the world, but apps are likely to remain the preferred channel in most developed markets.

Mobile banking has not picked up sufficiently in either the U.S. or Canada, due to security-related concerns. However, an analysis by Deloitte shows that mobile banking could become the most-preferred banking method by 2020. The study estimates that 20-25 million "Generation Y" (Gen Y) consumers will become new banking customers by 2015.

A banking.com study shows that 48% of Gen Y consumers are already using online banking services. Moreover, their preference for online banking is so high that around 30% said they would consider switching financial institutions if they did not provide the service. Both online and mobile banking by Gen Y largely consists of checking account balances and transferring funds, although they also like to pay bills on the platform.

It is believed that high smartphone penetration, higher income within this group and greater digital sophistication will drive increased demand for mobile banking services. Since mobile banking is expected to be the most cost efficient for banks, investment in technology to improve and expand mobile banking services is likely to increase.

Security

With online transactions expected to boom over the next few years, the topmost concern remains security. While banks will spend significantly on secure payment systems, hackers are expected to have a field day, largely targeting the flood of customers going online. Last year saw a huge increase in security breaches, something that may be expected to continue.

Recent research from McAfee revealed certain important facts: first, that mobile malware was primarily spreading through apps; second, 75% of infected apps came from Google Play; third, the chances of downloading malware or suspicious URLs was 1 in 6; fourth, 40% of malware families disrupt the system in more than one way, which is an indication of the increasing sophist! ication o! f hackers; and fifth, 23% of mobile spyware can result in data loss.

Even more alarming is that even "secure" payment platforms like digital wallets using NFC technology can now be infected by worms within close range of devices ("bump and infect"). An infected device can give out personal information during the payment process that can be used to steal from the wallet.

Mobile security offerings currently come from AirWatch, Apple (AAPL), Avast, Check Point, Cisco (CSCO), IBM (IBM), Juniper (JNPR), Kaspersky, McAfee, Microsoft (MSFT), MobileIron, RIM (Blackberry) (BBRY), Symantec (SYMC) and Trend Micro, among others.

Alternative payment systems will continue to gain popularity. While some of these payment systems, such as eBay's (EBAY) PayPal have been around for a while, other systems, such as Google's digital wallet, V.me and the FIS Mobile Wallet are still in the making. Alternative payment systems never really gained momentum in the past because of the low volume of transactions. However, as online transactions continue to increase, many more such systems could suddenly become more available.

We expect mobile security to become a major focus area for technology companies, since this is the stumbling block to payments through the mobile platform (currently just 2% of U.S. online spending).

Digital Advertising

The U.S. digital advertising market has seen some very strong growth in the past few years, despite the recession that impacted the entire economy. eMarketer estimates that the market will grow 14.0% in 2013, compared to the 15.0% growth in 2012.

Growth rates are expected to continue declining: 12.4% in 2014, 10.2% in 2015, 9.0% in 2016 and 6.9% in 2017. Retail, financial services, consumer packaged goods (CPG) and travel in that order, are expected to drive this growth.

The current strength in online advertising is coming primarily from the growing popularity of the display format. Of all the forms of online advertising,! display ! (including video, banner ads, rich media and sponsorships) is expected to see the strongest growth over the next few years. Also, of all the forms of display advertising, video and banner ads are expected to grow the strongest from 2011 to 2016.

Search will remain supreme until 2016, gradually giving way to video and banner ads, both of which will grow rapidly. The lower pricing of video and banner ads has made them popular with brand advertisers, so ad inventories are solid. Another factor favoring display ads is the proliferation of smartphones, where the smaller screens make display ads more effective than text ads.

The underlying drivers of growth of the display format are the continued increase in the number of users, greater propensity of users to consume online, a growing inventory of advertisements that serve to lower advertisement prices and the need to create brand awareness online.

Search advertising is expected to remain popular, because results are measurable, and therefore, more predictable than other media. This also makes the market more resilient in recessionary conditions, since advertisers are more confident about the results of their spending.

Since ecommerce entails the buying and selling of goods or services over electronic systems, it includes companies that are totally dependent on these sales, those that are gradually moving to it, as well as those that want to use it partially. Therefore, the biggest sellers or the ones growing the strongest are not necessarily those that are solely dependent on the Internet. The following diagrams seek to explain the position of companies primarily dependent on the Internet for the distribution of their goods and services in the context of the Zacks Industry Rank.

Two (Retail/Wholesale and Computer & Technology) of the 16 broad Zacks sectors are related to the ecommerce industry as depicted below.



! We rank t! he 264 industries across the 16 Zacks sectors based on the earnings outlook and fundamental strength of the constituent companies in each industry. To learn more visit: About Zacks Industry Rank.

The outlook for industries positioned at #88 or lower is 'Positive,' between #89 and #176 is 'Neutral' and #177 and higher is 'Negative.'

Therefore, Internet Commerce being in the 114th position is in Neutral territory, with Internet Services (185th position) being negative and Internet Services – Delivery (58th position) being positive.

So it is not surprising that the average rank of stocks in the Internet Commerce industry is 3.00, for Internet Services it is 3.15, while for Internet Services – Delivery, it is 2.76. [Note: Zacks Rank #1 denotes Strong Buy, #2 is Buy, #3 means Hold, #4 Sell and #5 Strong Sell].

Earnings Trends

The broader Retail/Wholesale sector, of which Internet Commerce is a part, appears to be turning the corner. While the revenue beat ratio is on the low side (34.1%), the earnings beat ratio is pretty robust at 61.4%.

Total earnings for the sector were up 5.7%, but not nearly as good as the 7.4% growth in the fourth quarter of 2012. Total revenues were up 1.5% from last year compared to a 4.9% increase in the fourth quarter.

The other companies we are discussing in the e-Commerce outlook (Part 2) fall under the broader Technology sector. Here too, we see a fairly strong earnings beat ratio of 63.1%, partially supported by a revenue beat ratio of 45.6%.

However, total earnings in the sector were down 4.4% compared to a 1.7% increase in the fourth quarter. Total revenues did slightly better, increasing 2.9% from last year, down from 5.3% in the fourth quarter.

Initial earnings estimates for 2013 and 2014 indicate double-digit growth in both years for Retail/Wholesale. Technology on the other hand is expected to be flat this year and up double-digits in the next.

OPPORTUNITIES

While many of the compan! ies discu! ssed are expected to do well this year, there are a few stand-out opportunities.

TripAdvisor (TRIP) is doing extremely well right now and the company's decision to invest in offline advertising (TV) makes sense. Traffic continues to surge, as the company continues to add content, both in the U.S. and important international markets.

Another good investment is Yahoo (YHOO), which is altering course under the leadership of Marissa Meyer. The company has been acquiring aggressively to position itself in the mobile segment and last reports indicated growing engagement.

Facebook (FB) is another opportunity worth looking into. The company is cozying up with Samsung, which has taken the mobile market by storm. It is also getting more innovative by the day, which is the only way to success here.

WEAKNESSES

We do not see a lot of weakness, although many of the companies may not be great opportunities either.

Revenue growth prospects for online travel companies Priceline, Expedia and Orbitz Worldwide are good. International expansion is a key factor driving growth for these companies and collaborative agreements with local players will be the key. Lower-value inventories in international markets are on the rise, so margins could be impacted.

Wednesday, April 22, 2015

Thursday’s ETF Chart To Watch: FXE In Focus After ...

After grinding sideways all week in anticipation of GDP data and FOMC commentary, Wednesday proved to be quite anticlimactic for many as markets responded with a whimper. Stocks were anticipating for the Fed to reveal a more concrete QE tapering timeline; however, policymakers offered no new hints and markets responded with a contained sell off in the last hour .

Our ETF to watch for today is the CurrencyShares Euro Currency Trust , which could experience volatile trading as investors react to the latest ECB rate decision. Analysts are largely expecting for policymakers to leave rates unchanged at 0.50%, although the commentary issued after the rate decision itself may offer further insights.



Chart AnalysisConsider FXE's one-year daily performance chart below. This ETF has been stuck in a range all year; notice how FXE has failed to hold above $132 a share while at the same time bouncing off support at the $127 level (green line) after each failed attempt. It was encouraging to see FXE peer above $131 a share (blue line) in early June of this year; however, selling pressures quickly returned and dragged it back down to virtually the same support level it had previously rebounded off. With FXE trading along resistance again, we feel that investors should hold off from jumping in long given the recent pattern at hand .

Click to EnlargeHistorically, we would expect for FXE to decline in the coming weeks as it battles resistance and profit taking; nonetheless, we would advise conservative investors to avoid taking a short position at these levels because encouraging developments overseas may inspire a breakout that propels FXE past resistance with little warning .

OutlookIf the latest ECB outlook strikes a pessimistic tone among investors, the euro could struggle in the currency market on the day; in terms of downside, FXE has support around $129 a share followed by the $127 level. On the other hand, a surprisingly optimistic outlook may inspire a rally for European ! markets; in terms of upside, FXE has stiff resistance at $133 a share. As always, investors of all experience levels are advised to use stop-loss orders and practice disciplined profit-taking techniques.

Follow me on Twitter @SBojinov

Disclosure: No positions at time of writing.

Monday, April 20, 2015

Zeke Ashton (Tilson Dividend Fund) Semi-Annual Letter To Investors (June 2013)

We have a rather simplistic investment philosophy: we like to buy assets when the prices of those assets reflect a sizable discount to what we believe them to be worth. We like to sell those assets back to the market when the market is willing to give us what we believe is a full, fair price. The catch is often that in order to buy discounted assets, there usually needs to be some fear and uncertainty reflected in securities prices. As the old saying goes, you can have cheap prices or you can have good news, but you usually can't have both. When it appears that all is well in the world and the market is driving asset prices higher, we tend to be net sellers. That has been especially true for us over the past year, in large part because there has not been a significant market sell‐off during that time that has lasted for more than a few days to allow us to make significant new investments. Our strategy greatly benefits from the occasional market break in order to re‐stock our portfolio with new investments that meet our Fund's risk‐averse, income generating mandate. In a way, we need the occasional market volatility that accompanies fear and uncertainty in order to achieve our strategy's full potential.

It is somewhat unusual for mutual funds to let un‐invested cash build up in their portfolios, because it is an invitation to under‐perform the markets if the market appreciates in the near term. We suspect that very few mutual funds would be willing to let more than 30% of the assets sit fallow, particularly given the historically low rates on money market funds, but in our view the willingness to do so can be a competitive advantage in the right circumstances. The reason for this is that markets tend to run in cycles driven by fear and hope; when the market is going up, it feels like it will never come back down. The reverse is also true. Our view is that the best way to exploit the occasional bouts of market fear is to have an inventory of ideas that one is ready to buy at the r! ight price, and the cash available to carry out that buying. One without the other is useless. The willingness to radically flex our invested balance up and down with market conditions (buying heavily into fear and uncertainty, selling appropriately into happy, fully‐valued market conditions) based on the availability of cheap individual securities or the absence of the same is likely to increase the chances of a good experience over time, and theoretically should reduce risk. The unfortunate reality is that following such a course can lead to uncomfortably long periods of under‐performance which can test the patience of both the Fund's manager and its investors. It is for this reason that we are satisfied with the Fund's recent returns that essentially matched the market's strong performance. We are willing to endure a performance drag in the short term in order to achieve our longer‐term objectives, but it's nice when we don't have to.

On that note, it is important for our investors to understand that there are really only two ways within a mutual fund structure that one can ensure that there will be cash available at the right times to follow this discipline. One way is to have sold assets that have fully appreciated in price and allow cash to build up in the Fund. The other is to have a base of investors that are conditioned to invest more money into the Fund during significant market selloffs. Unfortunately, this latter source of potential cash is rarely available and certainly can't be counted on. This is because it is the natural impulse for most investors to sell assets when the market is down and assets are cheap, only to buy assets when things are "safe" and prices are higher. As noted above, this is pretty much the opposite of what we try to do. The next best thing is to have a reasonable base of Fund investors that mechanically add to their investments over time, for example via an automated investment plan. This allows the manager the comfort of knowing that at l! east some! new capital will become available to buy assets in a market downturn.

As an investor in our Fund, you can help contribute to our chances of longer term potential success if you can condition yourself to make additional investments when market declines are making front page news – or at least not to sell during such times. Usually we will be net buyers at such times, and the more capital we have available, the better. Alternatively, you can make your investments fully mechanical by establishing programs to automatically invest a certain amount on a monthly or quarterly basis.

Portfolio Update

As of April 30, 2013 the Tilson Dividend Fund was approximately 70% invested in equities spread across 30 holdings, offset by notional covered call liabilities equal to approximately 1.1% of the Fund's assets. Cash and money market funds represented approximately 30% of the Fund's assets. The top ten investments represented just over 44% of Fund assets.

As of April 30, 2013, our top 10 positions were as follows:

Position % of Fund Assets
1) First American Financial Corp. (FAF) 7.0%
2) Apple, Inc. (AAPL) 6.5%
3) Coinstar, Inc. (CSTR) 4.8%
4) EMC Corp. (EMC) 4.4%
5) Coach, Inc. (COH) 4.4%
6) Kohl's Corp. (KSS) 4.1%
7) Blucora, Inc. (BCOR) 4.0%
8) Tetra Tech, Inc. (TTEK) 3.1%
9) OM Group, Inc. (OMG) 3.0%
10) American International Group, Inc. (AIG) 2.8%
TOTAL 44.1%
One area that we believe still offers some value in the market is in high quality, large‐cap technology stocks that may be momentarily out‐of‐favor as they transition from rapid growth to slower growth. In particular, we become interested when that transition is also acco! mpanied b! y a change in capital allocation policies designed to return more cash to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases. We believe that Apple and EMC are two of the absolute highest quality technology businesses in the world and both have recently announced very material, shareholder‐ friendly changes to how they will allocate capital.

Apple is a business everyone knows and likely has an opinion about; the stock price reflects an opinion that Apple's best days are behind the company and that Apple is in for a protracted period of decline. We believe that this negative outlook is unwarranted, and at recent prices net of its cash balance, Apple is priced at a mid‐single digit multiple to the cash flow generated by the business. Even better, Apple recently increased its dividend (the stock yields just under 3%) and also announced that it would repurchase roughly $60 billion worth of shares between now and the end of 2015. This would reduce the share count by approximately 15% at current prices. Our view is that Apple likely enjoyed a "peak year" in 2012, and that intensifying competition is likely to reduce Apple's amazingly high profit margins in the future. However, even accounting for that, we believe the recent stock price discounts too pessimistic a view of how Apple's business will perform over the next several years. In our estimation Apple remains an extraordinarily well‐run business with terrific products in expanding product categories and will remain a relevant and uniquely valuable business for many years into the future.

EMC is the leader in data storage and cloud computing technology and has, in our view, one of the best management teams in the IT industry. EMC was able to lead the trend towards server virtualization through its majority‐owned subsidiary VMware, and it has historically been a leader in data storage, which is a huge and growing market as more and more businesses look to store and utilize customer and business data. The company has a! lso stake! d out an early presence in the nascent trend of network virtualization through its acquisition of a company called Nicira. Like Apple, EMC carries a significant amount of excess cash on the balance sheet and generates enormous amounts of cash flow from its business every year, some of which is used to invest into new technologies via acquisitions and internal research and development. But there is plenty of cash left over, and in June 2013 EMC announced a much more aggressive share buyback program (similar in scope to Apple's announcement) and also initiated a dividend for the first time. EMC, like Apple, is valued by the market at a single‐digit multiple to cash flow net of cash on the balance sheet.

Importantly, while technology businesses are inherently difficult to predict due to rapid changes in product cycles, stock price can be an important risk mitigation element if they are low enough that one doesn't need to project significant growth in the future to justify today's stock price. In the case of both Apple and EMC, the stock prices are low enough to offer us a reasonable margin of safety should both companies suffer near‐term set‐backs as each is priced as if a meaningful and lasting decline in business profitability is an inevitable outcome. Importantly, these aren't businesses that have been left behind in terms of technology trends and need to invest heavily to catch up; these are both leaders in technology with track records of getting out in front of the pack and creating new product categories.

The Chimera Called Risk

Risk is an interesting concept when discussed in the context of investing. It is impossible to measure, and while the financial industry has a lot of ratios that purport to "risk adjust" returns, it is our view that while some of them are interesting none of them are definitive. There are also an infinite number of risks that an investment portfolio is exposed to; including the risk of being under‐exposed. Further, risk means different! things t! o different people. Our primary view of risk when it comes to investing in our Funds is the risk of a significant and permanent capital loss across our portfolio – one that cannot reasonably be recovered within a short period of time by the resumption of normally functioning capital markets. But others may define it differently. Finally, every single investor in our Fund likely has a unique and personal risk threshold; some people get nervous if their account is down relative to where it was yesterday, or last week, or last month. Others will have a very high tolerance for short‐term volatility, particularly if they are confident that they are invested in a vehicle appropriate for their particular goals and risk profile. We make every effort to be risk‐conscious in our investing decisions for the Fund, and we like to think of our ideal investor as one who wishes to have the opportunity for equity‐type returns over a multi‐year horizon but is willing to sacrifice some positive return if necessary in order to enjoy a lower risk profile than a typical equity portfolio. We believe an important "litmus test" for risk is how defensive a Fund is during very significant market declines, and we believe that the Fund scored well on this test during the market downturn of 2008‐2009. Of course, we also think that our Fund is a good fit for those who are looking for equity‐type returns with a meaningful income profile.

Over longer time horizons, we have been pleased to discover that by being focused on reducing risk, we have actually not been required to sacrifice returns. We cannot guarantee that this will be the case going forward, but we would like to think that we will generate satisfactory returns at a risk profile that most people can handle, even if those returns don't always keep up with the broad stock market indices or our benchmark. On the other hand, our number one priority is to avoid permanent capital loss and it is this guideline that drives our activities at the margin.!

Le! t's bring this discussion back to the here and now. The current environment feels very much on the risky side to us; the market is going up, and has gone up for what seems like a long time now. The securities in classic yield and dividend‐bearing categories are extremely expensive, particularly REITS, MLPs, and utility stocks. We see some stocks in these categories that we believe are worth much less than the current stock price, but investors are buying them because the stated (and in our view, unsustainable) dividend yield seems acceptable. For those companies that can legitimately earn and pay their stated pay‐outs, yields are very low by historical standards. In adjacent capital markets, such as high yield and convertible corporate bonds, yields are also quite unappealing. In our view, the prevailing low interest rates (which we believe are also unsustainable for much longer) have caused a dramatic yield compression across the capital markets and force many investors to take on significant risks to achieve a given yield profile.

Outside of the traditional categories for income investors, prices are somewhat more reasonable, and we have been able to use covered call selling in spots to create investments that can justify the deployment of capital. As we've noted in past letters, we believe the flexibility our strategy offers to use the option markets to generate income can be a big advantage, and we believe this is one of those times. Even so, we've not been able to find enough ideas to maintain a fully invested portfolio, and we aren't willing to bend our standards for safety to be more fully invested. We will remain patient for as long as necessary to find compelling opportunities.

As always, we wish to thank all of our investors for your continued trust and confidence in the Tilson Dividend Fund.

Zeke Ashton

Portfolio Manager, Tilson Dividend Fund

Wednesday, April 15, 2015

Are Ruby Tuesday's Earnings Better Than They Look?

Although business headlines still tout earnings numbers, many investors have moved past net earnings as a measure of a company's economic output. That's because earnings are very often less trustworthy than cash flow, since earnings are more open to manipulation based on dubious judgment calls.

Earnings' unreliability is one of the reasons Foolish investors often flip straight past the income statement to check the cash flow statement. In general, by taking a close look at the cash moving in and out of the business, you can better understand whether the last batch of earnings brought money into the company, or merely disguised a cash gusher with a pretty headline.

Calling all cash flows
When you are trying to buy the market's best stocks, it's worth checking up on your companies' free cash flow once a quarter or so, to see whether it bears any relationship to the net income in the headlines. That's what we do with this series. Today, we're checking in on Ruby Tuesday (NYSE: RT  ) , whose recent revenue and earnings are plotted below.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. FCF = free cash flow. FY = fiscal year. TTM = trailing 12 months.

Over the past 12 months, Ruby Tuesday generated $15.1 million cash while it booked a net loss of $16.1 million. That means it turned 1.2% of its revenue into FCF. That doesn't sound so great.

All cash is not equal
Unfortunately, the cash flow statement isn't immune from nonsense, either. That's why it pays to take a close look at the components of cash flow from operations, to make sure that the cash flows are of high quality. What does that mean? To me, it means they need to be real and replicable in the upcoming quarters, rather than being offset by continual cash outflows that don't appear on the income statement (such as major capital expenditures).

For instance, cash flow based on cash net income and adjustments for non-cash income-statement expenses (like depreciation) is generally favorable. An increase in cash flow based on stiffing your suppliers (by increasing accounts payable for the short term) or shortchanging Uncle Sam on taxes will come back to bite investors later. The same goes for decreasing accounts receivable; this is good to see, but it's ordinary in recessionary times, and you can only increase collections so much. Finally, adding stock-based compensation expense back to cash flows is questionable when a company hands out a lot of equity to employees and uses cash in later periods to buy back those shares.

So how does the cash flow at Ruby Tuesday look? Take a peek at the chart below, which flags questionable cash flow sources with a red bar.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. TTM = trailing 12 months.

When I say "questionable cash flow sources," I mean items such as changes in taxes payable, tax benefits from stock options, and asset sales, among others. That's not to say that companies booking these as sources of cash flow are weak, or are engaging in any sort of wrongdoing, or that everything that comes up questionable in my graph is automatically bad news. But whenever a company is getting more than, say, 10% of its cash from operations from these dubious sources, investors ought to make sure to refer to the filings and dig in.

With 10.5% of operating cash flow coming from questionable sources, Ruby Tuesday investors should take a closer look at the underlying numbers. Within the questionable cash flow figure plotted in the TTM period above, stock-based compensation and related tax benefits provided the biggest boost, at 8.8% of cash flow from operations. Overall, the biggest drag on FCF also came from other operating activities (which can include deferred income taxes, pension charges, and other one-off items) which represented 76.0% of cash from operations.

A Foolish final thought
Most investors don't keep tabs on their companies' cash flow. I think that's a mistake. If you take the time to read past the headlines and crack a filing now and then, you're in a much better position to spot potential trouble early. Better yet, you'll improve your odds of finding the underappreciated home-run stocks that provide the market's best returns.

Does Ruby Tuesday have what it takes to execute internationally? Take a look at some American restaurant concepts that are generating profits in all over the globe in, "3 American Companies Set to Dominate the World." It's free for a limited time. Click here for instant access to this free report.

We can help you keep tabs on your companies with My Watchlist, our free, personalized stock tracking service.

Add Ruby Tuesday to My Watchlist.

Sunday, April 5, 2015

Don't Get Too Worked Up Over Universal Technical Institute's Earnings

Although business headlines still tout earnings numbers, many investors have moved past net earnings as a measure of a company's economic output. That's because earnings are very often less trustworthy than cash flow, since earnings are more open to manipulation based on dubious judgment calls.

Earnings' unreliability is one of the reasons Foolish investors often flip straight past the income statement to check the cash flow statement. In general, by taking a close look at the cash moving in and out of the business, you can better understand whether the last batch of earnings brought money into the company, or merely disguised a cash gusher with a pretty headline.

Calling all cash flows
When you are trying to buy the market's best stocks, it's worth checking up on your companies' free cash flow once a quarter or so, to see whether it bears any relationship to the net income in the headlines. That's what we do with this series. Today, we're checking in on Universal Technical Institute (NYSE: UTI  ) , whose recent revenue and earnings are plotted below.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. FCF = free cash flow. FY = fiscal year. TTM = trailing 12 months.

Over the past 12 months, Universal Technical Institute burned $1.4 million cash while it booked net income of $5.3 million. That means it burned through all its revenue and more. That doesn't sound so great. FCF is less than net income. Ideally, we'd like to see the opposite.

All cash is not equal
Unfortunately, the cash flow statement isn't immune from nonsense, either. That's why it pays to take a close look at the components of cash flow from operations, to make sure that the cash flows are of high quality. What does that mean? To me, it means they need to be real and replicable in the upcoming quarters, rather than being offset by continual cash outflows that don't appear on the income statement (such as major capital expenditures).

For instance, cash flow based on cash net income and adjustments for non-cash income-statement expenses (like depreciation) is generally favorable. An increase in cash flow based on stiffing your suppliers (by increasing accounts payable for the short term) or shortchanging Uncle Sam on taxes will come back to bite investors later. The same goes for decreasing accounts receivable; this is good to see, but it's ordinary in recessionary times, and you can only increase collections so much. Finally, adding stock-based compensation expense back to cash flows is questionable when a company hands out a lot of equity to employees and uses cash in later periods to buy back those shares.

So how does the cash flow at Universal Technical Institute look? Take a peek at the chart below, which flags questionable cash flow sources with a red bar.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. TTM = trailing 12 months.

When I say "questionable cash flow sources," I mean items such as changes in taxes payable, tax benefits from stock options, and asset sales, among others. That's not to say that companies booking these as sources of cash flow are weak, or are engaging in any sort of wrongdoing, or that everything that comes up questionable in my graph is automatically bad news. But whenever a company is getting more than, say, 10% of its cash from operations from these dubious sources, investors ought to make sure to refer to the filings and dig in.

With 58.1% of operating cash flow coming from questionable sources, Universal Technical Institute investors should take a closer look at the underlying numbers. Within the questionable cash flow figure plotted in the TTM period above, stock-based compensation and related tax benefits provided the biggest boost, at 54.1% of cash flow from operations. Overall, the biggest drag on FCF came from capital expenditures.

A Foolish final thought
Most investors don't keep tabs on their companies' cash flow. I think that's a mistake. If you take the time to read past the headlines and crack a filing now and then, you're in a much better position to spot potential trouble early. Better yet, you'll improve your odds of finding the underappreciated home-run stocks that provide the market's best returns.

Can your retirement portfolio provide you with enough income to last? You'll need more than Universal Technical Institute. Learn about crafting a smarter retirement plan in "The Shocking Can't-Miss Truth About Your Retirement." Click here for instant access to this free report.

We can help you keep tabs on your companies with My Watchlist, our free, personalized stock tracking service.

Add Universal Technical Institute to My Watchlist.

Thursday, April 2, 2015

Are More LNG Exports Around the Corner?

In the recent 2013 EIA Energy Conference, the newly appointed Secretary of Energy, Dr. Ernest Moniz, promised that the Department of Energy's approval process for LNG exporting facilities will be addressed expeditiously. This is good news since the recent Freeport LNG approval came two years after Cheniere Energy's (NYSEMKT: LNG  ) Sabine Pass project secured a permit.  

With plenty of natural gas arbitrage opportunities around the world, moving LNG to high-price markets is essential. With around 20 applications still on file, gaining non-free trade export approval will be intensely selective. 

With domestic natural gas production growing faster than consumption, the United States is expected to become a net exporter of natural gas by the end of the decade. Cheniere Energy will become the first LNG exporter approved to ship to high-margin countries that are not members of a free trade agreement. With natural gas prices expected to rest in the $4-$5 range per MMbtu, Cheniere is primed for solid gains once the initial LNG trains start chugging in the first half of 2015. Don't wait until then – this 2013 darling continues to outperform the broad markets. Be sure to read all the details in this premium research report.