Thursday, January 29, 2015

Hertz Poison Pill Defensible as Stock Surges in 2013

Shares of Hertz Global (HTZ) have popped this morning after the company took steps to protect itself from those pesky activist investors.

Bloomberg

Unlike other companies that have been targeted by activists–we’re looking at you Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF)–this has been a very good year for Hertz Global and its competitor Avis Budget Group (CAR). Hertz is up 73%, while Avis has more than doubled. So MKM Partners’ Christopher Agnew and Bradford Dalinka can see the logic in the “poison pill:”

In general we are not fans of shareholder rights plans, however, we understand HTZ’s Board wanting to implement this plan: (1) It is a standard short-term (one-year) plan and therefore relatively shareholder friendly. (2) 2014, in our view, will be a big year for car rental and HTZ in particular with a stronger economy compounding the benefits of industry consolidation as HTZ fully integrates Dollar Thrifty. We also anticipate the likely strategic action of a HERC spin-off or sale which in turn we believe will be a catalyst for initiating and accelerating returning cash to shareholders. We can understand why the Board would like time to execute on the strategic plan it has outlined. (3) We think this news will attract increased interest in the HTZ story with the risk that it also could increase volatility.

Shares of Hertz Global have gained 8.1% to $28.02 today at 11:06 a.m., while Avis Budget Group has risen 2.4% to $40.44.

Wii U sales sluggish as new video game consoles…

While Microsoft and Sony celebrate early sales victories for their Xbox One and PlayStation 4 video game consoles, the forecast for Nintendo and its Wii U looks grim.

Last Thursday, Nintendo said sales of its Wii U console surged 340% in the U.S. last month, following a price drop to $299 instituted in September and the long-awaited arrival of fresh games, notably the critical darling Super Mario 3D World.

That more than three-fold increase sounds great. However, the Wii U has "really struggled," says David Cole of DFC Intelligence. He says that by the end of November both the just launched PS4 and Xbox One had surpassed the Wii U's total sales in 2013.

The Wii U is looking more like Nintendo's GameCube launched in 2001, "with a very small user base," says Cole. "It will appeal mainly to fans of Nintendo's first party brands."

The rocky start for Wii U — available since November of last year — is a far cry from the success of its predecessor, the Nintendo Wii. Global sales for the Wii U reached 3.91 million as of September, compared with 13 million for the Wii during the same time frame after its 2006 debut.

Although Nintendo did not disclose how many Wii U consoles have been sold this holiday season, Nintendo of America President Reggie Fils-Aime says holiday sales have been "very strong."

"A number of key games we hoped to launch very early in the system's life were delayed and launched later," says Fils-Aime. "We're seeing the positive impact now."

Among the games recently released: Super Mario 3D World, which sold 215,000 physical and digital copies in the U.S. in its first eight days, and the remake of role-playing adventure The Legend of Zelda: Wind Waker. New titles from key franchises such as Mario Kart and fighting game Super Smash Bros. arrive next year.

Despite the infusion of new games, DFC forecasts sales of the Wii U will approach only a quarter of the Wii's tally, which topped 100 million as of September. Meanwhile, rival consoles PS4 an! d Xbox One continue to gain momentum, each topping 2 million in sales.

Even with the PS4 and Xbox One still in short supply, the Wii U's technical shortcomings — and lack of an eye-popping feature like the Wii's motion controls — may limit its viability as an alternative to either Sony or Microsoft's consoles.

"Nintendo is not really well-positioned as a fallback (option)," says Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter. "A PlayStation is not considerably more expensive and it feels like you're getting a lot more."

The holiday often brings a spike in all video game sales, and Wii U could benefit. EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich says the console carries several advantages, including a lower price and "more games that target that family friendly audience."

However, the future prospects for Wii U appear challenging. "They are definitely in a difficult spot right now," says Divnich.

Follow Brett Molina on Twitter: @bam923.

Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Cisco Sales Lag Even Most Minimal Expectations

Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) reported fourth fiscal quarter and full-year 2013 results after markets closed on Wednesday. For the quarter the networking giant reported adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.53 and $12.1 billion in revenues. In the same period a year ago, Cisco reported EPS of $0.48 on revenue of $11.88 billion. First-quarter results compare to the Thomson Reuters consensus estimates for EPS of $0.51 and $12.36 billion in revenue.

We noted in our preview of Cisco's earnings earlier today that the bar had been set very low for this quarter. Still, Cisco failed to jump over the revenue expectation bar even though it did beat the EPS estimate.

The company does not provide any outlook information until its conference call at 4:30 p.m. The consensus estimates for the second quarter of fiscal year 2014 call for EPS of $0.52 on revenues of $12.6 billion. Full-year 2014 estimates call for EPS of $2.10 on revenues of $50.78 billion. The consensus estimates are lower than they were at the end of the company's fourth quarter in July.

The company's CEO said:

While our revenue growth was below our expectation, our financials are strong, our strategy is strong and our innovation engine is executing extremely well.

Cisco boosted its $82 billion stock buyback plan by $15 billion. The company said there is now $16.1 billion left in the program.

The company noted that it completed its acquisitions of Sourcefire Inc. and Composite Software during the quarter.

Net income slipped 4.6% compared with the same period a year ago and EPS fell 5.1%. At best this was a poor showing for the networking giant.

Shares of Cisco are down about 3% in after-hours trading, at $23.30 in a 52-week range of $17.62 to $26.49. Thomson Reuters had a consensus analyst price target of around $26.50 before today's results were announced.

Many Americans don’t expect to ever retire

In a sign of just how bleak retirement prospects have gotten, more than a third of Americans say they will have to work until they literally can't anymore.

A new Wells Fargo study found that 37% of people don't ever expect to retire, but instead will have to "work until I'm too sick or die." Survey respondents say paying the monthly bills is their highest priority, and saving for retirement is a distant second.

"There were a couple of points I found shocking or troubling," says Laurie Nordquist, head of Wells Fargo Institutional Retirement and Trust. "One is the increase in the number of people who say paying bills was their top day-to-day concern."

NEW: USA TODAY Retirement Section

That's especially concerning, because the economy has improved in the last few years. "The middle class is not feeling it when it comes to their own situations," she says.

The annual Wells Fargo Middle Class Retirement study, a telephone survey conducted by Harris Interactive of 1,000 middle-class Americans between the ages of 25 and 75, was released Wednesday. Highlights:

• 59% say their top day-to-day concern is paying the bills

• 42% say both saving and paying the bills is not possible

• 48% are not confident they will be able to save enough for a comfortable retirement

• 34% say they will have to work until they are at least 80 because they have not saved enough.

"Americans are great bill-payers, but they are horrible savers," says Michael Chadwick, CEO of Chadwick Financial Advisors in Unionville, Conn. "People have to start saving, even when things are difficult. There is never an easy time."

RETIREMENT LIVING: What to do if you haven't saved enough for retirement?

On the upside, half the survey respondents said they are confident that they will have enough for retirement. "The good news we saw was the difference that having a (financial) plan makes," Nordquist says. "If they had a plan, they saved three times more than those without a p! lan."

She says it's a misconception that financial plans are only for the wealthy: 45% of those who did not have a plan said it was because they have so few assets. "Everyone needs a plan, regardless of income level," she says.

Chadwick says most people who visit him to begin retirement plans are already in their 50s, and he tells them it's never too late.

"If you don't have assets and you have difficulty meeting you monthly bills, it makes it difficult to sit down and plan to save," says Ken Moraif, senior adviser at Money Matters in Plano, Texas. "The fact that you have difficulties and challenges is an even bigger reason why you should have a plan. Until you do that, you will never get out of the circumstances that you are in."

TAKE ACTION: 5 things to do now to prepare

Monday, January 26, 2015

This 'Hated' $6 Billion Cash Machine Is Selling For Cheap

When a publicly traded company makes money, who is the first to get paid?

Imagine a line of people waiting in line on payday. They include the company's creditors, employees, preferred shareholders and of course, the government.

Like it or not, as a common shareholder, you're the last in line.  

You don't get paid dividends until everyone else has been paid.

And this is why free cash flow (FCF) is such an important valuation metric when analyzing a business.

StreetAuthority's sister site InvestingAnswers.com defines free cash flow as "a measure of how much cash a business generates after accounting for capital expenditures such as buildings or equipment." 

And here's why it's important:

The presence of free cash flow indicates that a company has cash to expand, develop new products, buy back stock, pay dividends, or reduce its debt. High or rising free cash flow is often a sign of a healthy company that is thriving in its current environment. 

Furthermore, since FCF has a direct impact on the worth of a company, investors often hunt for companies that have high or improving free cash flow but undervalued share prices -- the disparity often means the share price will soon increase.

Let's look at a company that matches up perfectly with these criteria.

Over the past 12 months, JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) has generated $6.7 billion in free cash flow. This equates to $1.77 per share.

That's quite a turnaround for a company that lost $38 billion during the financial crisis in 2008.

Did the biggest bank in the U.S. (by assets) learn anything from its devastating experience in 2008? According to CEO Jamie Dimon, it did.

The man who analyst group Morningstar named as its CEO of the year in 2002 says JPMorgan emerged from the crisis a much stronger company.

In fact, between 2007 and 2013 management has doubled tangible book value per share. Since 2008, earnings per share have risen like clockwork, from $1.37 to $6 today.

The company's operating margins are stellar. Over the past 12 months, the company has reported an operating margin of 33%.

And right now, with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.5 and a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1, the company is inexpensive. This is despite a solid gain of 25% over the past year.

The company pays a dividend of 2.5%, backed by a low payout ratio of only 21%.

However, JPMorgan has been in the headlines recently, and not for reasons investors like to see.

The company has offered to pay $3 billion to settle criminal and civil investigations by federal and state prosecutors into its mortgage-backed-securities activities. 

This scandal follows the "London Whale" losses sustained in 2012, when JPMorgan's Chief Investment Office lost $2 billion on a series of transactions involving credit default swaps. The chief officer responsible for the mess has since stepped down.

So what are we to make of JPMorgan's management?

On one hand, JPMorgan's management team has doubled book value since 2007 and tripled revenue since 2003.

On the other hand, some members of management have made terrible decisions, resulting in billions of dollars in losses due to bad derivatives trades and government fines.

The problem may stem from its size. The company manages more than $2 trillion worth of assets in dozens of countries. Economics of scale help JPMorgan compete by offering rates and services that smaller banks simply can't compete with. 

But this same size makes the company much more difficult to manage, and the resulting headaches caused by far-flung managers making bad decisions could continue to plague the company. 

Still, the current negative sentiment and bad press has resulted in the company's stock selling for cheap. For the investor who is willing to stomach the risks, buying shares of a financial juggernaut like JPMorgan at a price even to book value may be too good to pass up.

Risks to Consider: The banking industry is subject to significant regulatory and macroeconomic risk. While JPMorgan is more conservatively governed than some of its peers, the financial crisis of 2008 proved that even institutions of its size are subject to dramatic shortfalls when the U.S. economy stagnates or dips into recession.

Action to Take --> For contrarian investors looking for a bargain, JPM rates a buy at today's prices. Once the current litigation is resolved, the company should continue to do what it does best -- generating enormous free cash flow at impressive margins.

P.S. Stocks like JPM are similar to a special group of securities we call "Forever" stocks. These are world-dominating companies that are solid enough to buy, forget about and hold -- forever. To learn more about these stocks -- including some of their names and ticker symbols -- click here.

Sunday, January 25, 2015

Global Equity Funds Record Biggest Inflows Since 2005

Global equity funds attracted the largest inflows since at least 2005 in the week ended Sept. 18 as investors piled into stocks before the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain monetary stimulus.

The funds lured a net $25.9 billion in the period, Wei Liang Chang, a foreign-exchange strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. (ANZ), said by phone from Singapore today, citing data from EPFR Global. Developed markets posted $24.3 billion of inflows, while emerging-nation funds drew $1.6 billion, according to Chang.

The MSCI All-Country World Index climbed to the highest level since 2008 on Sept. 16 after Lawrence Summers withdrew his bid to become the next Fed chairman, easing concerns that he would curtail monetary stimulus. The gauge extended gains after the U.S. central bank unexpectedly maintained its $85 billion monthly bond-purchase program two days later.

"People will find some space to breathe at this point," Wellian Wiranto, an investment strategist at the wealth-management unit of Barclays Plc, which oversees about $217 billion worldwide, said from Singapore today. "In the coming week, we see further inflows given appetite has stabilized quite significantly and tapering was postponed."

Taper Timing

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke first signaled on May 22 that policy makers could reduce the bond purchases, triggering capital outflows from emerging markets and a month-long selloff in global equities. More than $50 billion left global funds investing in developing-nation bonds and stocks, according to EPFR Global.

Bernanke said Sept. 18 that a decision on slowing the pace of asset purchases would depend on economic data, and that the Fed has no set timetable.

"It's hard to see the Fed start to taper at the next meeting in October," said Wiranto. "If they really want confirmation of a recovery, one or two data points won't do it for them."

The MSCI All-Country World Index slipped 0.1 percent to 389.77 at 4:58 p.m. Hong Kong time, paring a third straight weekly gain to 2.6 percent. The measure has added 15 percent this year and trades at about 14 times projected 12-month earnings, the highest level on a weekly basis since April 2010.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index also lost 0.1 percent, trimming this week's advance to 3.5 percent. The gauge has declined 3.3 percent this year and is valued at 11 times forecast profits, the highest level since March, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

5 Stocks Insiders Love Right Now

TASR PCYG CBG VRX NES
Delafield, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- Corporate insiders sell their own companies' stock for a number of reasons.

>>5 Big Short-Squeeze Stocks Ready to Pop

They might need the cash for a big personal purchase such as a new house or yacht, or they might need the cash to fund a charity. Sometimes they sell as part of a planned selling program that they have put in place for diversification purposes, which allows them to sell stock in stages instead of selling all at one price.

Other times they sell because they think their stock is overvalued and the risk/reward is no longer attractive. Some even dump their own stock because they have inside knowledge that a competitor is eating their lunch and stealing market share.

But insiders usually buy their own shares for one reason: They think the stock is a bargain and has tremendous upside.

>>5 Stocks Ready to Break Out

The key word in that last statement is "think." Just because a corporate insider thinks his or her stock is going to trade higher, that doesn't mean it will play out that way. Insiders can have all the conviction in the world that their stock is a buy, but if the market doesn't agree with them, the stock could end up going nowhere. Also, I say "usually" because sometimes insiders are loaned money by the company to buy their own stock. Those loans are often sweetheart deals and shouldn't be viewed as organic insider buying.

At the end of the day, its large institutional money managers running big mutual funds and hedge funds that drive stock prices, not insiders. That said, many of these savvy stock operators will follow insider buying activity when they agree with the insider that the stock is undervalued and has upside potential. This is why it's so important to always be monitoring insider activity, but it's twice as important to make sure the trend of the stock coincides with the insider buying.

>>5 Stocks Under $10 Set to Soar

Recently, a number of companies' corporate insiders have bought large amounts of stock. These insiders are finding some value in the market, which warrants a closer look at these stocks. Here's a look at five stocks whose insiders have been doing some big buying per SEC filings.

Taser International

One defense player that insiders are active in here is Taser International (TASR), which is engaged in the development, manufacture and sale of electronic control devices designed for use in the law enforcement, military, corrections, private security and personal defense markets. Insiders are buying this stock into notable strength, since shares are up 38% so far in 2013.

>>5 Rocket Stocks to Buy in September

Taser International has a market cap of $636 million and an enterprise value of $564 million. This stock trades at a premium valuation, with a trailing price-to-earnings of 42.74 and a forward price-to-earnings of 33.73. Its estimated growth rate for this year is 14.8%, and for next year it's pegged at 19.4%. This is a cash-rich company, since the total cash position on its balance sheet is $29.81 million and its total debt is just $120,000.

A director just bought 50,000 shares, or about $594,000 worth of stock, at $6.72 to $6.91 a share.

From a technical perspective, TASR is currently trending above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bullish. This stock has been uptrending extremely strong for the last month, with shares soaring higher from its low of $8.57 to its intraday high of $12.62 a share with heavy upside volume flows. During that uptrend, shares of TASR have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action.

If you're bullish on TASR, then I would look for long-biased trades as long as this stock is trending above some near-term support at $11.05 and then once it closes at a new 52-week high above $12.62 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above that level with volume that hits near or above its three-month average action of 671,966 shares. If we get that move soon, then TASR will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $15 to $18 a share.

Park City Group

Another technology player that insiders are jumping into here is Park City Group (PCYG), which develops and offers its software to supermarkets, convenience stores and other retailers. Insiders are buying this stock into massive strength, since shares are up 162% so far in 2013.

Park City Group has a market cap of $126 million. This stock trades at a reasonable valuation, with a price-to-sales of 11.29 and a price-to-book of 10.21. This is barely a cash-rich company, since the total cash position on its balance sheet is $4.40 million and its total debt is $2.29 million.

>>4 Big Tech Stocks on Traders' Radars

A director just bought 155,039 shares, or $1 million worth of stock, at $6.45 per share. Another director also just bought 77,519 shares, or about $499,000 worth of stock, at $6.45 per share.

From a technical perspective, PCYG is currently trending above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bullish. This stock has been uptrending strong for the last few weeks, with shares moving higher from its low of $6.06 a share to its recent high of $8.08 a share. That uptrend is coming after shares of PCYG downtrended from its mid-July high of $8.51 a share to that $6.06 low, with shares consistently making lower highs and lower lows, which is bearish technical price action. That rebound off that $6.06 low has now pushed shares of PCYG back above its 50-day at $7.36 and within range of triggering a big breakout trade.

If you're in the bull camp on PCYG, then look for long-biased trades as long as this stock is trending above its 50-day at $7.36 or above more support at $6.75 and then once it breaks out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $8.08 to $8.30 a share and then once it clears its 52-week high at $8.51 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above those levels with volume that hits near or above its three-month average action of 116,856 shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then PCYG will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that move are $10 to $12 a share.

CBRE Group

One real estate player that insiders are loading up on here is CBRE Group (CBG), which offers a range of services to occupiers, owners, lenders and investors in office, retail, industrial, multi-family and other types of commercial real estate. Insiders are buying this stock into decent strength, since shares are up 11.5% so far in 2013.

>>5 Big Short-Squeeze Stocks Ready to Pop

CBRE Group has a market cap of $7.2 billion and an enterprise value of $9.2 billion. This stock trades at a reasonable valuation, with a trailing price-to-earnings of 22.95 and a forward price-to-earnings of 13.13. Its estimated growth rate for this year is 17.2%, and for next year it's pegged at 18.2%. This is not a cash-rich company, since the total cash position on its balance sheet is $517.34 million and its total debt is $2.67 billion.

A director just bought 161,300 shares, or about $3.46 million worth of stock, at $21.50 per share.

From a technical perspective, CBG is currently trending just below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bearish. This stock has been uptrending for the past few weeks, with shares moving higher from its low of $21.24 to its recent high of $22.28 a share. During that move, shares of CBG have been making mostly higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That move has now pushed shares of CBG within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade.

If you're bullish on CBG, then look for long-biased trades as long as this stock is trending above that recent low of $21.24 and then once it breaks out above both its 200-day at $22.68 and its 50-day at $23.03 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above those levels with volume that hits near or above its three-month average volume of 2.69 million shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then CBG will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $24.50 to its 52-week high at $25.69 a share.

Valeant Pharmaceuticals

One healthcare player that insiders are snapping up a big amount of stock in here is Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX), which develops, manufactures and markets a range of pharmaceutical products. Insiders are buying this stock into major strength, since shares are up sharply by 67% so far in 2013.

>>3 Biotech Stocks Triggering Breakouts on Big Volume

Valeant Pharmaceuticals has a market cap of $33 billion and an enterprise value of $41 billion. This stock trades at a reasonable valuation, with a price-to-sales of 8.21 and a price-to-book of 5.79. This is not a cash-rich company, since the total cash position on its balance sheet is $2.54 billion and its total debt is $10.79 billion.

A director just bought 51,000 shares, or about $5.04 million worth of stock, at $99.01 per share.

From a technical perspective, VRX is currently trending above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bullish. This stock has been uptrending very strong for the last six months, with shares soaring higher from its low of $69.87 to its recent high of $105.40 a share. During that uptrend, shares of VRX have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That move now has pushed shares of VRX within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade.

If you're bullish on VRX, then look for long-biased trades as long as this stock is trending above its 50-day at $94.75 and then once it breaks out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $102 to $103.43 a share and then once it clears its 52-week high at $105.40 a share high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above those levels with volume that hits near or above its three-month average volume of 1.51 million shares. If that breakout hits, then VRX could easily tag $115 to $120, or even $130 a share.

Nuverra Environment Solutions

One final name with some large insider buying is Nuverra Environment Solutions (NES), which provides environmental solutions to protect, enhance and advance environmental sustainability. Insiders are buying this stock into big time strength, since shares are up sharply by 83% so far in 2013.

>>5 Cash-Rich Stocks to Triple Your Gains

Nuverra Environment Solutions has a market cap of $660 million and an enterprise value of $1.14 billion. This stock trades at a premium valuation, with a forward price-to-earnings of 84.67. Its estimated growth rate for this year is 42.9%, and for next year it's pegged at 325%. This is not a cash-rich company, since the total cash position on its balance sheet is $10.24 million and its total debt is $551.58 million.

The CEO just bought 900,000 shares, or about $2.08 million worth of stock, at $2.30 to $2.32 per share.

From a technical perspective, NES is currently trending below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bearish. This stock has been downtrending badly for the last two months, with shares dropping from its high of $3.75 to its recent low of $2.06 a share. During that move, shares of NES have been consistently making lower highs and lower lows, which is bearish technical price action. That said, shares of NES have started to bounce off that $2.06 low and it's now moving within range of triggering a big breakout trade.

If you're bullish on NES, then look for long-biased trades as long as this stock is trending above some key near-term support levels at $2.20 to that low at $2.06, and then once it breaks out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $2.80 to its 50-day at $2.98 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above those levels with volume that hits near or above its three-month average action of 2.39 million shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then NES will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $3.50 to its 200-day at $3.62 a share.

To see more stocks with notable insider buying, check out the Stocks With Big Insider Buying portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.


RELATED LINKS:



>>5 Foreign Stocks to Trade for Gains



>>5 Sin Stocks Ready for Dividend Boosts



>>5 Hated Earnings Stocks That You Should Love

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including

CNBC.com and Forbes.com. You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24.


Thursday, January 22, 2015

MicroStrategy Earnings Are on Deck

MicroStrategy (Nasdaq: MSTR  ) is expected to report Q2 earnings around July 29. Here's what Wall Street wants to see:

The 10-second takeaway
Comparing the upcoming quarter to the prior-year quarter, average analyst estimates predict MicroStrategy's revenues will wither -1.9% and EPS will wither -40.0%.

The average estimate for revenue is $139.2 million. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.39.

Revenue details
Last quarter, MicroStrategy reported revenue of $130.2 million. GAAP reported sales were 5.9% lower than the prior-year quarter's $138.3 million.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
Last quarter, non-GAAP EPS came in at -$0.46. GAAP EPS of $4.57 for Q1 were much higher than the prior-year quarter's $0.02 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Recent performance
For the preceding quarter, gross margin was 72.4%, 180 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was -6.7%, 790 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 39.6%, much better than the prior-year quarter.

Looking ahead

The full year's average estimate for revenue is $579.1 million. The average EPS estimate is $1.71.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a three-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 184 members out of 214 rating the stock outperform, and 30 members rating it underperform. Among 66 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 54 give MicroStrategy a green thumbs-up, and 12 give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on MicroStrategy is hold, with an average price target of $117.88.

Software and computerized services are being consumed in radically different ways, on new and increasingly mobile devices. Many old leaders will be left behind. Whether or not MicroStrategy makes the coming cut, you should check out the company that Motley Fool analysts expect to lead the pack in "The Next Trillion-dollar Revolution." Click here for instant access to this free report.

Add MicroStrategy to My Watchlist.

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Is Dycom Industries's Cash Machine Shutting Down?

Although business headlines still tout earnings numbers, many investors have moved past net earnings as a measure of a company's economic output. That's because earnings are very often less trustworthy than cash flow, since earnings are more open to manipulation based on dubious judgment calls.

Earnings' unreliability is one of the reasons Foolish investors often flip straight past the income statement to check the cash flow statement. In general, by taking a close look at the cash moving in and out of the business, you can better understand whether the last batch of earnings brought money into the company, or merely disguised a cash gusher with a pretty headline.

Calling all cash flows
When you are trying to buy the market's best stocks, it's worth checking up on your companies' free cash flow once a quarter or so, to see whether it bears any relationship to the net income in the headlines. That's what we do with this series. Today, we're checking in on Dycom Industries (NYSE: DY  ) , whose recent revenue and earnings are plotted below.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. FCF = free cash flow. FY = fiscal year. TTM = trailing 12 months.

Over the past 12 months, Dycom Industries generated $27.4 million cash while it booked net income of $33.8 million. That means it turned 1.9% of its revenue into FCF. That doesn't sound so great. FCF is less than net income. Ideally, we'd like to see the opposite.

All cash is not equal
Unfortunately, the cash flow statement isn't immune from nonsense, either. That's why it pays to take a close look at the components of cash flow from operations, to make sure that the cash flows are of high quality. What does that mean? To me, it means they need to be real and replicable in the upcoming quarters, rather than being offset by continual cash outflows that don't appear on the income statement (such as major capital expenditures).

For instance, cash flow based on cash net income and adjustments for non-cash income-statement expenses (like depreciation) is generally favorable. An increase in cash flow based on stiffing your suppliers (by increasing accounts payable for the short term) or shortchanging Uncle Sam on taxes will come back to bite investors later. The same goes for decreasing accounts receivable; this is good to see, but it's ordinary in recessionary times, and you can only increase collections so much. Finally, adding stock-based compensation expense back to cash flows is questionable when a company hands out a lot of equity to employees and uses cash in later periods to buy back those shares.

So how does the cash flow at Dycom Industries look? Take a peek at the chart below, which flags questionable cash flow sources with a red bar.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. TTM = trailing 12 months.

When I say "questionable cash flow sources," I mean items such as changes in taxes payable, tax benefits from stock options, and asset sales, among others. That's not to say that companies booking these as sources of cash flow are weak, or are engaging in any sort of wrongdoing, or that everything that comes up questionable in my graph is automatically bad news. But whenever a company is getting more than, say, 10% of its cash from operations from these dubious sources, investors ought to make sure to refer to the filings and dig in.

With questionable cash flows amounting to only 3.2% of operating cash flow, Dycom Industries's cash flows look clean. Within the questionable cash flow figure plotted in the TTM period above, stock-based compensation and related tax benefits provided the biggest boost, at 9.2% of cash flow from operations. Overall, the biggest drag on FCF came from capital expenditures, which consumed 68.8% of cash from operations.

A Foolish final thought
Most investors don't keep tabs on their companies' cash flow. I think that's a mistake. If you take the time to read past the headlines and crack a filing now and then, you're in a much better position to spot potential trouble early. Better yet, you'll improve your odds of finding the underappreciated home-run stocks that provide the market's best returns.

If you're interested in companies like Dycom Industries, you might want to check out the jaw-dropping technology that's about to put 100 million Chinese factory workers out on the street – and the 3 companies that control it. We'll tell you all about them in "The Future is Made in America." Click here for instant access to this free report.

We can help you keep tabs on your companies with My Watchlist, our free, personalized stock tracking service.

Add Dycom Industries to My Watchlist.

Nabors' Shareholders Balk at Executive Compensation -- Again

It should be three strikes and you're out.

Nabors Industries (NYSE: NBR  ) claims that it listened to shareholder concerns about its executive compensation and used those critiques to reformulate its compensation structure. However, for the third year in a row, it failed to gain majority shareholder support for its executive compensation.

Also, shareholders again voted on a shareholder proposal pushing Nabors to clear future severance agreements above a certain threshold with shareholders. While that proposal didn't pass this year (as in 2012), it received 45.9% shareholder support. In fact, more shares voted in favor of the proposal than against it. However, including broker non-votes and abstentions in the final tally tipped the balance against the proposal's supporters.

The shareholders have spoken -- repeatedly. It remains to be seen, however, whether the board will finally give shareholders what they want.

Outrageous compensation at Nabors
I believe shareholders are right to balk at Nabors' compensation decisions.

For starters, shareholder concerns about severance packages didn't come out of left field. When he left the CEO position, board Chair Eugene Isenberg was granted a $100 million severance. While Isenberg later forfeited the payment, the board defended the initial severance by claiming that its payments are "paid pursuant to binding contractual agreements," giving shareholders reason to worry that the board may make mistakes in the future that require them to make similarly outrageous payouts.

And that's not the only concerning compensation decision approved by Nabors' board. The SEC was suspicious enough of Nabors' decision to allow directors and executives significant personal access to company aircraft that they chose to investigate. And as is observed by corporate-governance expert Nell Minow's organization GMI Ratings, companies with the highest personal jet use costs often display other red flags associated with their compensation and accounting systems, including pay packages that lack sufficient performance requirements.

The Foolish takeaway
I hope shareholders' continued disapproval of Nabors' executive compensation, along with their repeated calls for more control over decisions about compensation, sends a strong message to Nabors' leadership. With the incorporation of two new board members in response to pressure from major shareholder Pamplona Capital Management, there may be more of a push for governance revisions that are more hospitable to shareholders. Without a clear sign that these changes will happen, however, I believe investors would do best to avoid the stock.

Adobe Acquires Agency for Creative Cloud

Today, Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE  ) purchased the San Francisco creative consulting agency, Ideacodes. The company designs and creates user interfaces for smart applications, digital products, and networked communities, according to an Adobe press release.

The co-founders of Ideacodes, Emily Chang and Max Kiesler, will join Adobe's Creative Cloud business as creative directors. In a statement, Chang and Kiesler said, "We're thrilled to join Adobe at a time when Creative Cloud is beginning to take form, the potential to harness the power of connected networks is being realized, and the influence of good design on experience is being appreciated and expected from people worldwide."

Adobe said in the release that, "The Ideacodes team will help us realize our goal of making Creative Cloud indispensable for creatives worldwide." The Ideacodes acquisition comes just a week after Adobe announced that it was acquiring the developer team from Thumb Labs to create an enhanced mobile experience for Creative Cloud.

Adobe has not released further details or a purchase price for the Ideacodes acquisition.

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Boston: When Just a Few Minutes Matter

The author at the finish line two days before the 2013 Boston Marathon.

To help those affected by the tragedy in Boston, you can contribute to The One Fund Boston.

Two hours, fifty-five minutes, and forty-seven seconds after excitedly striding over the starting-line timing mat, I crossed the finish line of the 2013 Boston Marathon. It was a personal record. I turned and gave Adam a hug. I had just met Adam two hours and fifty four minutes earlier and he proceeded to coach me to my best-ever marathon time.

It had all the trappings of a truly memorable athletic event: goals achieved, heartfelt camaraderie, wildly cheering fans (even if I didn't stop to kiss any of the beckoning Wellesley girls), and, of course, all of the hoopla of one of the biggest races in the world. The weather was perfect, and the 27,000-runner race was beautifully organized. I was beaming and, after picking up my drop bag, began fielding an influx of congratulatory messages from family and friends.

Adam and I limped our way through the buffet of post-marathon food, smiling, recounting the race, and making plans to meet for future races. We stuffed our faces with Hawaiian rolls and granola while guzzling Gatorade.

I gave Adam a parting fist bump and headed to meet another friend -- Seth Jayson, a sharp-witted, wise-cracking fellow Fool and avid marathoner. Normally flanked by a cheer section of his wife and daughter, he was flying solo for this race. And because he'd scheduled his flight back soon after the race, he'd had to check out of his hotel in the morning, before the race. As a favor to whomever he'd be sitting next to on that flight, I'd offered to let him shower in our hotel -- the Lenox, located just across the street from the finish line.

My mom was running the race with the Girl Scout charity team and I needed to get back out to meet her at the finish line. I still had time though -- I was tracking her online and I calculated that it'd be around 20 minutes before she'd be finishing. Nevertheless, it'd be better to get out there sooner. I didn't want to chance missing her finish, and we could cheer on other runners in the meantime.

When Seth and I arrived back at the hotel, the Boston Marathon gear-clad employees and a gaggle of random guests gave us a round of applause. I was more than a little embarrassed. I awkwardly nodded and we hopped on the elevator. Seth and I reviewed our respective races. He showered. He dawdled and, in his good-natured way, poked fun at himself for it. I continued to watch the updates on my mom. She had tweaked her back and was worried that she'd run slower than usual. She was. Finally, Seth and I gathered our stuff and prepared to head to the finish line to cheer on my mom. "Hang on," I said, "I'm going to use the bathroom." I was taught young by my doctor aunt to never ignore my bowels. I had no idea how fortunate the advice would prove that day.

I hustled out of the bathroom, stuffed $10 in my pocket and grabbed my half-eaten bag of Hawaiian rolls. I was standing by the window.

Suddenly, I heard what sounded like a cannon blast. I looked out the window and saw a plume of smoke. People were running, I saw good Samaritans dragging flailing, injured bodies out of the blast zone, police knocked over barricades. "Jesus," I gasped, "was that a bomb?" Seth was sure it was. We froze. Seconds later another blast sounded. We could hear screams from the streets below.

My first thought: I was safe, but my mom was still out there. I picked up my phone and called my dad. In an unusual turn, neither he nor my wife had come to the race to cheer us on for this momentous race. "Dad, I think there was just a bomb at the finish line. I'm OK, and I'm going to find mom." I hung up. I tried to call my wife, but the line had gone dead. I texted "I think a bomb went off at the finish. I'm safe and as far as I know mom is too I'm going to look for her." Hawaiian rolls still in hand, Seth and I rushed to the lobby.

The room seemed strangely still. Employees didn't seem panicked, but also didn't seem to know what to do. You could hear screams and sirens from out on the street. We squirted by a crowd of people at the front door and tried to figure out where we could go. Streets were blocked by uniformed officers or fully barricaded. The last checkpoint my mom had registered was 40 kilometers, which meant that she was, at most, a mile from the finish -- I prayed she was at least that far away.

A volunteer we passed offered that runners on the course were being diverted to Boston Commons. In the best of times my navigational skills are barely north of awful. Now I was also in a fog. Seth pulled out his phone and suggested we make a wide loop to avoid the blocked off streets. I just followed him. We walked together for a few blocks. He pointed out Boston Commons and said he was going to hoof it to Logan Airport to try to catch his plane. As with my wife and family, it was unusual that his wife and daughter had skipped the trip to Boston. He was obviously shaken by what could have been.

I fielded texts from friends and family expressing concern. I sent texts assuring people that my mom would be OK -- I just had to find her. I was partially feigning confidence -- the mobile tracking systems at races are often inaccurate.

When I finally reached Boston Commons there was hardly anyone there. It didn't look like runners had been directed there after all. I spotted another volunteer and asked him for information. "I think they're being sent over to Stuart. But it's awful over there -- people are dead, other people lost limbs. I don't know if you'll be able to get over there."

"I have to," I replied, "my mom is still out there." The volunteer patted me on the shoulder and wished me luck.

The family meet-up area was on Stuart Street and the day before, my mom and I had agreed to meet there in case I didn't see her at the finish. I positioned myself under the "K" sign. Runners filtered in, and there were tearful embraces with loved ones. Police and military dashed by. Sirens blared. Bomb-sniffing dogs barked.

I texted my mom to let her know exactly where I was. If she somehow got access to her drop bag, she'd have her phone. I paced. Up to "A," back down to "K." I peered down the police-guarded rows of buses that held one batch of drop bags. I called my mom and left her a message as I shuffled back to "K." I watched vacant-eyed runners wander by.

My phone buzzed constantly with well-wishing text messages. At one point, I looked down and my heart leapt when I saw my mom's name in my missed call list. I dialed back and then texted before realizing it was just the outbound call I'd placed to her. Thinking she may have headed to the hotel, I texted her to say we should meet there.

I set off running. My legs burned, but I was sick of waiting. I took a wide loop back toward the Lenox. I walked. I ran some more. I could see the hotel. I limped up to an officer standing in front of yellow caution tape.

"Where are you going?"

"That's my hotel."

"It's closed, it's been evacuated. There's no way you're getting anywhere near there."

I hobbled back out to the intersection just as my phone buzzed. It was my wife. My brother had heard from my mom. He said she'd borrowed somebody's cell phone and texted to let him know that she was OK. She was headed to the hotel.

I sunk down on a sidewalk planter. Everything wasn't OK. But for that moment, knowing that my family was safe, I felt better. I looked down and realized I was still tightly grasping the bag of Hawaiian rolls. I absent-mindedly began to eat.

A reporter with cameraman in tow headed in my direction. She asked if I ran the race and if I'd mind taking to her. I didn't mind. I told her what I saw from the window. I said I was concerned about my mom but was relieved when I'd heard that she was OK. She asked if I had any takeaways from what happened. I said I didn't know much about what happened, so it was a little early for that.

"Are you angry?" She asked.

"Angry?" I had no idea. I was confused. "No. I'm not. I'm... no I'm not angry." She ended the interview.

I asked what they'd seen. They were right there. They'd seen blood. Lots of blood. Limbs hanging off. People terrified. I said I was sorry -- the physical injuries are awful, but it's got to be scarring to have to witness that kind of carnage. They thanked me and left.

The author and his mother before the 2013 Boston Marathon.

My phone lit up. It was my mom and she'd managed to get her cell phone. She texted that she was on her way to the hotel and I told her there's no way we'd get in. We wearily navigated toward each other and finally met up. I was too tired to be emotional, but I was emotional anyway. We both cried.

The hours that followed are a bit of a blur. We wandered around. We found a woman shivering, alone on a street corner. She said she had a rare disease and her muscles and lungs were starting to seize up from the cold. She implored us to not get medical help -- she had a ride coming and the EMTs wouldn't know how to respond to her disease. So we got her blankets and waited with her. Eventually, her ride arrived.

We started to get cold and found a burrito shop. I had $10 in my pocket, but the kid behind the counter said he'd charge us for a couple of coffees and give us a large burrito along with it. Chalk one up for the much-maligned younger generation.

I continued to field a humbling torrent of concerned texts and Facebook posts. I began to feel guilty -- don't worry about me, I'm fine. There are people that are dead. There are people that will never walk again. Yet, physically tired, emotionally wrung out, still clad in my race clothes, and smelling really, really bad... I appreciated it all.

We made our way back to the hotel eventually, but it was still locked down. The manager at a nearby Marriott welcomed us and allowed us to stay warm in the lobby. He brought us sandwiches and lent us cell phone chargers so we could continue letting family know we were OK.

Around 9 p.m., we were able to walk through the parking lot of police and military vehicles and two officers accompanied us to our room in the Lenox to retrieve our belongings. We packed quickly and nervously chatted with the officers. One was visibly angry -- I thought he'd start spitting as he talked. He couldn't imagine what kind of animal would do such a thing. The other officer was a born-and-bred Bostonian. There was more optimism in his voice. Boston would pull together. They'd show their true colors, and next year, the race would be a testament to that.

We were ushered back out of the Lenox just as quickly as we'd gone in. We booked a room at the Marriott and schlepped our bags up to our new, 10th-floor room. I went back out into the cold night, back past the police checkpoints, past the barking from the SUVs emblazoned with "K-9 unit," past the hazmat trucks, the hordes of jabbering media, and the screaming sirens.

I ordered two pizzas inside the oddly bustling Salty Pig. The boisterous crowd felt jarring, so I left and waited outside.

As I sat waiting, I thought back to the newswoman who had interviewed me. Was I angry yet? I waited. And waited. I wasn't. Whoever did this was angry. I was just sad. I was sad that the families who had come out to cheer and support loved ones had been gravely injured, and killed. I was sad that we live in a world where not only does this happen, but it happens all the time. I was sad that even though the newscasters kept telling me that this was an "unimaginable" event that it wasn't unimaginable at all.

I did, however, realize that there was a takeaway after all. I realized that had my mom run a little faster, had Seth taken a faster shower, or had I decided to skip one last trip to the bathroom, the three of us may have all been right at the finish line as the bombs went off. Had my uncle not had to leave early for a meeting, he and my aunt would have been there. Had my wife, my dad, my brother, sister, or any of my other family members been at the race -- as they almost always are -- they would have been right there, smiling, cheering, and at risk.

So often, life seems so big. We get married, have kids, save for retirement. We make big, important decisions. We worry about whether we said the wrong thing during a meeting or if we bought the right smartphone.

Then, every so often, we're reminded just how much can come down to a matter of mere minutes, or even seconds, in one direction or another. I don't know that I'm smart enough or wise enough to know what that "means," but I do know that it puts a lot in perspective awfully quickly.

I picked up my cell phone and dialed my wife. Before she said anything I told her I loved her.

I scrawled this out from Logan Airport on my tablet, and then my cell phone when that died. I hadn't been to Boston since I was knee high, but I'll be back. I'll be back to run the Boston Marathon. Not because I think this was "unimaginable," or that it can't happen again. I'll be back because the person that did this wants the opposite reaction. And I'll be back because when I see life coming down to small, seemingly random decisions and increments of time, it doesn't inspire me to not live. It inspires me to live that much more -- to make sure those that I love know it, to seize opportunity, and to make it perfectly clear that hate, anger, and violence don't win.

Monday, January 19, 2015

Wealth is outpacing income...and that's a scary sign

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) More household wealth in America sounds like good news, but it could also mean economic trouble.

The ratio of wealth to income has hit a recent record, according to Credit Suisse.

The last time it was this high was during the Great Depression. And it came close two other times: 1999, the year before the dotcom bubble burst, and leading up to 2007, before the housing market crash.

Wealth has skyrocketed, driven mainly by the soaring stock market, and that has mostly benefited the rich. Income for the average person, meanwhile, hasn't been growing much.

Credit Suisse analysts found that the ratio of wealth to income is 6.5. For more than 100 years, it has typically fallen between 4 and 5.

"This is a worrying signal given that abnormally high wealth income ratios have always signaled recession in the past," the Credit Suisse report said.

wealth to income chart

Wealth per adult in the U.S. has risen every year since 2008. In fact, average wealth is now 19% above the pre-crisis peak hit in 2006, the report stated. And $31.5 trillion household wealth has been added to the U.S. since 2008.

While experts said it's normal for wealth to outpace income, especially after a recession, it becomes a problem when it rises so fast that people feel overly optimistic about their wealth.

Tim Yeager, chair of the Arkansas Bankers Association, said when wealth inequality increases, the likelihood of asset bubbles also rises.

"Stock market and financial industry wealth are always moving around looking for the highest returns and makes bubbles more likely," he said. "When the stock market gets hot, more people pour in and that amplifies the creation of a pending bubble."

Russell Price, senior economist at Ameriprise, is hopeful the income side of the equation will balance out soon. "The pockets of slack in the labor market are evaporating and job growth is very encouraging - both are needed to increase wages."

The fact that there's been three peri! ods of high wealth to income ratios in 15 years has Yeager concerned. "These asset bubbles are becoming more frequent and that causes financial instability."

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said in a speech Friday the increasing inequality could dampen the economy. "It is no secret that the past few decades of widening inequality can be summed up as significant income and wealth gains for those at the very top and stagnant living standards for the majority," she said.

It Would Be Real Magic If Disney Bought Nike's FuelBand

www.disney.go.com Colorful bracelets have become all the rage at Disney's (DIS) Florida theme parks. The MagicBands allow users to get into the parks, access expedited queues and -- if they're staying on-site -- pay for food and merchandise. They raise the bar for the theme park experience, but they're little more than RFID chips dolled up as fashionable wristbands. They don't do anything on their own. They are not battery powered. They don't offer up any LED displays. They simply interact with Disney's growing fleet of scanners at entrance turnstiles, ride entrances and cash registers. What if these bracelets could do more? What if MagicBand told time, interacted with the My Disney Experience app or tracked wearers' vigorous activity while walking through the theme park? Yes, what if Disney's MagicBand could also be a fitness bracelet or a smart watch? What if Disney acquired Nike's (NKE) fading FuelBand business? Just Do It Nike's FuelBand is on the way out. The athletic footwear and apparel giant once had a hit on its hands. The $149 Nike+ FuelBand hit the market blazing in early 2012, quickly selling out of its initial supply. The wristband's three-axis accelerometer tracked movements, while the LED screen served as a clock, also measuring calories burned, steps taken and a proprietary metric called NikeFuel that gauged the vigorousness of a day's activities. Nike should've had a winner, but it blew it. First, it made its big push when the cheaper FitBit wireless trainers and Jawbone Up bands were already on the market. It also turned its back on Android, only offering iPhone owners the ability to use Bluetooth to wirelessly update their NikeFuel tallies on their smartphone apps. One popular theory is that Nike didn't let its device play nice with the world's leading mobile operating system because Apple (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook was on Nike's board of directors. Now that Apple is rolling out a smart watch of its own, it seems silly that Nike never got around to respecting the growing base of Google's (GOOG) Android users. Despite the global appeal of the Nike brand, the FuelBand suffered. Nike laid off the majority of the device's hardware team in a springtime cleaning back in April, discontinuing work on a slimmer model that was supposed to hit the market later this year. When You Wish Upon a Star That brings us back to Disney. The MagicBand starts at just $12.95. It has been given away in the past to resort hotel guests and annual pass holders. Disney does sell character-themed bands and add-on bling at a premium, but it's a cheap way to keep an ID chip on as many guests as possible. Disney doesn't have to give that up, but what if it snapped up Nike's seemingly dormant FuelBand business to give guests a premium MagicBand experience? For those guests who don't mind paying up for a themed fitness bracelet -- and don't mind dealing with the recharging process every handful of days -- why wouldn't Disney jump into the booming niche of wearables? Disney also owns ESPN, making the rebranding process a no-brainer. An ESPN MagicBand would do everything that the existing MagicBand does at the parks, but also serve as a fitness tracker. It could also evolve with some smart watch features that would push notifications to the LED screen on FastPass changes, ride outages, short queues or even flash sales. Disney's MagicBand is just scratching the surface. If the House of Mouse takes this opportunity to rescue Nike's dying platform, it could bring the magic to a whole new level. More from Rick Aristotle Munarriz
•Why Comcast Called Out Netflix 283 Times to the Feds •PC Sales Rise, Notably for Apple and Google •Can Trick-or-Treaters Save SeaWorld?

Saturday, January 17, 2015

Google and the Chromebook Are Going Toe-to-Toe With Apple in Education

The e-learning industry is expected to grow into an enormous $50 billion market worldwide over the next two years. Currently, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) , with its iPad, digital textbooks, and courses, appears to have the leading presence within this space. However, recent initiatives by Google (NASDAQ: GOOG  ) (NASDAQ: GOOGL  ) show that the market is not Apple's for the taking.

Technology's biggest & best mold e-learning
If the e-learning market does in fact grow to $50 billion, it would appear that Apple has a first-to-market advantage. The company began selling digital textbooks back in 2012, and according to IDC, Apple has an 85% share of the U.S. education tablet market, and sold 13 million iPads in the worldwide education market as of July.

However, one problem that's keeping Apple from penetrating all schools and universities in America is that its products are knowingly expensive. As a result, cities that have embraced digital transformation for education have resorted to issuing bonds or attempting to find grants as a way to handle the increased expense of bringing Apple into the school systems. For parents, college students, or school systems, supplying an iPad for all can be a big task, especially when textbooks are still being purchased, albeit digitally.

With that said, Google introduced Classroom back in May, and last month it became open to all classrooms. Most importantly, Google Classroom is free in its Apps for Education, and serves as a portal to allow teachers to create and assign homework, communicate with students, and offer real-time lesson planning.

Students then utilize Google Docs, Sheets, and Slides to get their work done, and can easily manage classes with each subject having its own unique page.

Google's opportunity to shine
Albeit, schools already have computers, as do most households, but the real value in Google Classroom is the opportunity for Google to market Chromebooks. These are low-end laptop-like devices that come standard with Google software, like Docs, Chrome, and YouTube.

Already, Chromebooks have become very popular in the education sector, even before Google began targeting education with Classroom. Gartner estimates that 85% of the 2.9 million Chromebooks sold last year were to the education sector. For 2014, Gartner expects sales to exceed five million, and over 14 million by 2017. Therefore, given this growth, Google's launch of Classroom gives the tech giant a prime opportunity to push Chromebooks into more school systems.

Why the success?
Chromebooks are small, portable, like a laptop. However, Chromebooks are also cheap, starting at under $200 and many models actually have Internet built into the device. Another possible reason that Chromebooks have been popular in education, aside from price, is the keyboard.

In all levels of education writing papers, fill in the blank, short summaries are all prevalent, and can get quite difficult on a touch-screen iPad. While some have mastered the art of touch keyboards, traditional keyboards are a great advantage for completing such tasks.

Source:Googleblog

Furthermore, after experimenting with 8,600 students in Clarkstown Central School District, Google found that by combining Chromebooks with its new Classroom software there was a direct benefit of increased student engagement and improved organization for the classroom. A private college preparatory high school called Fontbonne Hall Academy also noted an increase in student engagement along with time savings, convenience, and organization as the noted benefits. These combined advantages all explain Google's success in the classroom, and why it might continue.

Foolish thoughts
Now that Google has software designed specifically for the classroom, it's very possible that it can give Apple a run for its money in the e-learning market. The Education Industry Association estimates that Federal and State expenditures for education exceed $750 billion annually, giving whichever technology giant can make the biggest impact the opportunity for significant long-term monetization.

With that said, Apple may have the first-to-market advantage, but it speaks volume that Google had such success with Chromebooks before ever having software aimed specifically at the classroom. Now that Classroom is live, don't be surprised if Chromebooks become even more prevalent in the education sector, and if Google ultimately wins the battle for education against Apple.

Warren Buffett: This new technology is a "real threat"
At the recent Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, Warren Buffett admitted this emerging technology is threatening his biggest cash-cow. While Buffett shakes in his billionaire-boots, only a few investors are embracing this new market which experts say will be worth over $2 trillion. Find out how you can cash in on this technology before the crowd catches on, by jumping onto one company that could get you the biggest piece of the action. Click here to access a FREE investor alert on the company we're calling the "brains behind" the technology.

 

Thursday, January 15, 2015

Massachusetts approves $11 minimum wage

massachusetts minimum wage Legislators in the Bay State approved an NEW YORK (CNNMoney) Massachusetts is on track to have the highest state minimum wage in the nation.

Lawmakers in the Bay State gave final approval on Thursday to legislation that will gradually raise the minimum to $11 an hour by 2017, up from $8 today. Governor Deval Patrick received the bill Thursday evening, said Jesse Mermell, a spokeswoman. He is expected to sign it into law soon.

While Massachusetts is taking the lead among states, the city of Seattle, which recently approved an increase to $15 an hour, still will offer the highest minimum anywhere in the country.

President Obama, who supports a nationwide increase to $10.10, applauded the move, saying Massachusetts "joins a growing coalition of states, cities and counties that are doing (their) part to make sure no American working full-time has to support a family in poverty."

The Massachusetts bill also raised the subminimum base wage for tipped workers to $3.75 from $2.63 currently. While advocates for a higher minimum wage applaud Massachusetts move, they say the increase for tipped workers is subpar.

Compared to other states, which have set higher wage bases for tipped workers, "Massachusetts is a real outlier," said Paul Sonn, general counsel for the National Employment Law Project. If a tipped worker doesn't earn the equivalent of the full minimum wage, after counting both the subminimum base plus tips, employers are supposed to make up the difference. But, Sonn said, "there' s a lot of room for evasion."

Raising the minimum wage has become a bit of a trend at the state level. Michigan lawmakers also recently approved a phased-in increase to $9.25 by 2018.

Vermont approved a bill last month that raises its minimum wage to $10.50 by 2018 as well, as did ! Maryland lawmakers, who chose to raise that state's minimum to $10.10.

Lawmakers in Minnesota, Delaware, West Virginia, Connecticut, New York, California and Hawaii have also approved minimum wage hikes this year or last.

At the federal level, however, lawmakers have reached stall speed on the minimum wage issue. Senate Democrats have put forth a proposal to raise the federal minimum to $10.10 an hour, up from $7.25 currently. Even if it passes the Senate, it faces an uphill battle in the House.

CNNMoney's American Dream Poll earlier this month found that 71% of people surveyed favor a hike in the federal minimum wage. And of those, 36% said it should be increased to $10.10 an hour, while 16% said it should be even higher.

--CNN's Kevin Conlon contributed to this report

Wednesday, January 14, 2015

Consumer Sentiment Slips in May on Concern Over Wages

Consumer Sentiment Julio Cortez/AP NEW YORK -- A monthly gauge of U.S. consumer sentiment fell in May as a gloomy view on income growth clouded an otherwise positive economic outlook, a survey released Friday showed. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's preliminary May reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment came in at 81.8, down from 84.1 the month before. It was also below the expectation of 84.5 among economists polled by Reuters. "The main concern behind the small May loss involved dispiriting trends in wages," survey director Richard Curtin said in a statement, as the median gain in household income for the next year was seen below inflation expectations. However, Curtin said, "consumers judged the current state of the economy at the most favorable levels in 10 years." Some 58 percent of consumers reported that the economy had improved, up from 49 percent in April. The May proportion matched two readings from 2013 as the highest going back to 2004. The survey's barometer of current economic conditions fell to 95.1 from 98.7 and below a forecast of 99. The gauge of consumer expectations slipped to 73.2 from 74.7 and fell short of an expected 75. The survey's one-year inflation expectation remained unchanged from last month at 3.2 percent, while the survey's five-to-10-year inflation outlook dipped to 2.8 percent from 2.9 percent.

Tuesday, January 13, 2015

2 Stocks Spiking on Unusual Volume

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- Professional traders running mutual funds and hedge funds don't just look at a stock's price moves; they also track big changes in volume activity. Often when above-average volume moves into an equity, it precedes a large spike in volatility.

>>5 Stocks With Big Insider Buying

Major moves in volume can signal unusual activity, such as insider buying or selling -- or buying or selling by "superinvestors."

Unusual volume can also be a major signal that hedge funds and momentum traders are piling into a stock ahead of a catalyst. These types of traders like to get in well before a large spike, so it's always a smart move to monitor unusual volume. That said, remember to combine trend and price action with unusual volume. Put them all together to help you decipher the next big trend for any stock.

>>Invest Like a Hedge Fund With the Pro's Top 5 Stocks

With that in mind, let's take a look at several stocks rising on unusual volume recently.

Dick's Sporting Goods

Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) operates as a sports and fitness retailer primarily in the Eastern U.S. This stock closed up 0.92% at $57.19 in Wednesday's trading session.

Wednesday's Volume: 4.10 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 1.59 million

Volume % Change: 189%

From a technical perspective, DKS jumped modestly higher here with above-average volume. This stock has been uptrending for the last month, with shares moving higher from its low of $50.54 to its intraday high of $57.25. During that uptrend, shares of DKS have been making mostly higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. Market players should now look for a continuation move higher in the short-term if DKS manages to take out Wednesday's high of $57.25 with strong volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in DKS as long as it's trending above $56 or $54 and then once it sustains a move or close above $57.25 with volume that hits near or above 1.59 million shares. If that move starts soon, then DKS will set up to re-test or possibly take out its 52-week high at $58.73. Any high-volume move above that level will then give DKS a chance to trend north of $60.

Ubiquiti Networks

Ubiquiti Networks (UBNT), together with its subsidiaries, offers a portfolio of networking products and solutions for service providers and enterprises. This stock closed up 6.6% at $52.46 in Wednesday's trading session.

Wednesday's Volume: 1.90 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 1.19 million

Volume % Change: 64%

From a technical perspective, UBNT soared sharply higher here right above some near-term support at $48 with above-average volume. This move pushed shares of UBNT into breakout territory, since the stock took out and closed above some near-term overhead resistance at $51.60. This spike on Wednesday is now quickly pushing shares of UBNT within range of triggering an even bigger breakout trade. That trade will hit if UBNT manages to take out Wednesday's high of $53.02 to its all-time high at $53.58 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in UBNT as long as it's trending above Wednesday's low of $48.60 or above $48 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that's near or above 1.19 million shares. If that breakout kicks off soon, then UBNT will set up to enter new all-time-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $60 to $65.

To see more stocks rising on unusual volume, check out the Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.


RELATED LINKS:



>>3 Huge Stocks on Traders' Radars



>>4 Stocks Under $10 Moving Higher



>>5 Utility Trades to Charge Your 2014 Gains

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including

CNBC.com and Forbes.com. You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24.


Monday, January 12, 2015

Reps react to Finra's proposed rule changes on nontraded REIT costs

Registered representatives who sell nontraded real estate investment trusts and industry insiders greeted proposed Finra rule changes that would give investors a truer picture of what it costs to buy shares of such REITs with varying degrees of muted optimism and skepticism.

If approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission, the rule change, which was posted on Finra's website on Monday, would do away with the practice of broker-dealers listing the per-share value of nontraded REITs at $10, the price at which brokers commonly sell them to clients.

Instead, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority Inc.'s potential rule change would take into consideration the various fees and commissions paid to brokers and dealer managers, reducing the share price on each customer account.

“I don't think this will hurt my business, and for my clients, this isn't an issue,” said James Ehrenkrook, who is affiliated with Independent Financial Group.

He said that he explains to clients how he gets paid for different services and products, emphasizing the difference between fees for assets under management and a commission for a product such as a nontraded REIT.

“The key is how much the clients will make, not the adviser,” Mr. Ehrenkrook said.

“I have mixed feelings on this,” said Eric Reinhold, an adviser with Ameriprise Financial Services Inc. “I never thought it made sense to show $10 per share from beginning, because it gave the impression that the valuation was always the same.”

Investing in different asset classes such as stocks, which are liquid, and real estate, which isn't liquid, will give rise to differences in valuations, Mr. Reinhold and other advisers said.

“I think trying to make both of these very different assets the same is a mistake,” he said.

“In a rising real estate market, REITs have appraised to the upside, which in some ways works against clients,” particularly when a nontraded REIT is still in the phase of raising money, Mr. Reinhold said.

In a statement, the Investment Program Association, which represents the interests of nontraded REIT companies and other direct investment products, stressed that it had worked closely with Finra on the rule proposal.

The IPA worked with Finra “to create an account statement rule that is fair to investors and presents a clear picture of nonlisted REITs and direct participation programs as they evolve,” the IPA said.

Monday's Finra proposal to the SEC takes steps in this direction, the IPA said.

“Deducting commissions and direct marketing fees on the account statement represent steps forward for these increasingly popular products, and the IPA supports this part of the proposal,” the association's statement sa! id.

Because of the proposal's complexity, the IPA said that it would like to see a 90-day comment period after the rule is published in the Federal Register rather than the proposed 21 days.

The nontraded REIT industry, which saw sales double last year to $20 billion, from 2012, has been anxiously waiting for the Finra rule proposal. Whether a change in per-share valuation disclosure would hurt or slow nontraded REIT sales has been hanging over REIT sponsors and the independent broker-dealers that sell the product.

Many broker-dealers had record revenue from nontraded REIT sales last year as a number of REITs had “liquidity events,” meaning that they merged with another company or were listed on an exchange.

The proposed rule has two methodologies that broker-dealers can use when an estimated value is presumed reliable, according to the 268-page Finra proposal.

Those methodologies are net investment and independent valuation.

For example, the net investment methodology could be used for two years following the nontraded breaking of escrow, or when the issuer is permitted to access the offering proceeds to buy real estate.

“For example, if the prospectus for an offering with a $10 offering price per share disclosed the selling commissions totaling 10% of the offering proceeds, and organizational and offering expenses of 2%, the amount available for investment would be 88%, or $8.80 per share,” according to the Finra rule proposal.

Nontraded REITs now don't have to show an estimated per-share valuation until 18 months after the sponsors stops raising funds, which in many cases can take two or three years. The Finra proposal drastically speeds up the process by which investors would see a valuation of less than $10 a share.

The second method is independent valuation and could be used at any time, according to the Finra proposal.

It would consist of the most recent valuation disclosed in the issuer's periodic or current reports and would require a third-p! arty-valu! e expert's or experts' determination.

The proposed rule changes, which have been in the works at Finra since 2011, is now in the lap of the SEC. The effective date of the proposed rule change will be announced no later than 90 days following the SEC's approval.

The specific rule that Finra is proposing to change is NASD Rule 2340, regarding customer account statements.

It relates to the per-share valuation for nontraded REITs and other “direct participation program” investments such as oil and gas partnerships.

Finra has shifted its stance on nontraded REIT valuations since its initial rule proposal was published in September 2011.

In that proposal, Finra considered requiring that every customer account statement present a valuation of a nontraded REIT or “direct participation program” security.

In the proposal that is heading to the SEC, Finra isn't requiring broker-dealers to list an estimated value per share for each security.

Finra has doubts about “reliable” valuation, it said in its proposal.

“Finra has determined not to explicitly require the presentation of a valuation in customer account statements because it could interfere with the objective of ensuring that valuations are reliable,” according to the rule proposal.

GuruFocus Real Time Picks of the Week

The following information is a highlight of the real-time guru activity we saw this week. To view more information on these gurus, check out their guru portfolios. The "Real Time Picks" reports the stock purchases and sells that Gurus have made within the prior two weeks. If a Guru makes a purchase or sell of a company in which they own a greater-than 5% stake, SEC regulations require them to report their transaction within two days. This week we saw notable increases in Real Time activity from Seth Klarman (Trades, Portfolio), Jean-Marie Eveillard (Trades, Portfolio) and Chris Davis (Trades, Portfolio).

Chris Davis (Trades, Portfolio)

Over the past week Chris Davis (Trades, Portfolio) of Davis Selected Advisers added to his holdings in Laboratory Corporation of America (LH).  The guru upped his stake 21.11% by purchasing 1,666,957 shares of the company's stock.  He bought these shares at an average price of $91.37 per share, and since then the price per share is up about 1% to $92.57 per share.

Davis' most recent buy gives him control of 10.61% of the company's shares outstanding and accounts for approximately 3% of his total portfolio.  Davis now holds on to a total of 9,561,830 shares of Laboratory Corporation of America.

Chris Davis (Trades, Portfolio)' historical holding history as of the close of the third quarter:

1389386923108.png

The guru has steadily been increasing his position in Laboratory Corporation since the fourth quarter of 2012.

Laboratory Corporation of America Holdings is an independent clinical laboratory company in the United States.  Through its national network of laboratories, the company offers a broad range of clinical laboratory tests that are used by the medical profession in routine testing, patient diagnosis, and in the monitoring and treatment of disease.

Laboratory Corporation's historical revenue and net income:

1389388122277.png

The analysis on Laboratory Corporation reports that the company has issued $1.3 billion of debt over the past three years, it has shown predictable revenue and earnings growth and its P/E, P/B and P/S ratios are all trading at historical lows.

Most recently the company updated its 2013 guidance and provided its 2014 preliminary guidance which reported:

Reaffirmed its prior revenue growth guidance of approximately 3%. Updated its non-GAAP full year 2013 EPS to between $6.90 and $7.05. The company expects that revenue growth will be 2% in 2014. The company will release its 2013 results on Feb. 7, 2014.

The Peter Lynch Chart suggests that the company is currently overvalued:

1389388943368.png

Laboratory Corporation of America Holdings has a market cap of $8.09 billion.  Its shares are currently trading at around $92.57 with a P/E ratio of 15.30, a P/S ratio of 1.50 and a P/B ratio of 3.10.  The company had an annual average earnings growth of 12.10% over the past ten years. 

GuruFocus rated the company the business predictability rank of 4.5-star.

Jean-Marie Eveillard (Trades, Portfolio)

Over the past week Jean-Marie Eveillard (Trades, Portfolio) of First Eagle Investment Management made a notable decrease of their position in UniFirst Corporation (UNF).  The guru cut his position -70.49% by selling 528,976 shares of the company's stock.  He sold these shares at an average price of $107.00 per share, and now the stock is trading up about 2% to $109 per share.

The guru's most recent sell gives him control of 1.11% of the company's shares outstanding.  Eveillard now holds on to 221,413 shares of the company's stock.

Jean-Marie Eveillard (Trades, Portfolio)'s historical holding history as of the close of Q3:

1389390410740.png

UniFirst Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, is a provider of workplace uniforms and protective work wear clothing in the U.S. It has operating segments: US and Canadian Rental and Cleaning, Manufacturing, Specialty Garments Rental and Cleaning, First Aid and Corporate.

UniFirst Corporation's historical revenue and net income:

1389390520004.png

The analysis on UniFirst reports that the company has shown predictable revenue and earnings growth, its operating margin is expanding and its dividend yield is near a 10-year low.  The analysis also notes that the company's price is sitting near a 10-year high.

The company recently announced their first quarter 2014 results which reported:

Revenues were up 4.3% to $346.7 million. Net income of $34.5 million, or $1.71 per share, representing a 12% increase from last year. Cash provided by operating activities of $68.6 million, up 22.2% from last year. Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the quarter of $141.8 million, down from $197.5 mil.

The Peter Lynch Chart suggests that the company is currently overvalued:

1389390554770.png

UniFirst Corporation has a market cap of $2.17 billion.  Its shares are currently trading at around $108.13 with a P/E ratio of 18.30, a P/S ratio of 1.60 and a P/B ratio of 2.10.  The company had an annual average earnings growth of 9.20% over the past ten years. 

GuruFocus rated UniFirst the business predictability rank of 4.5-star.

Seth Klarman (Trades, Portfolio)

Over the past week Seth Klarman (Trades, Portfolio) of The Baupost Group made one real time reduction; the guru reduced his holdings in Enzon Pharmaceutical (ENZN).  The guru cut his holdings in the company -43.6% by selling 3,353,595 shares of the company's stock.  He sold these shares at an average price of $1.15 per share; the shares are still currently trading at around the same price.

The guru's most recent reduction leaves him in control of 9.88% of the company's shares outstanding.

Klarman's historical holding history:

1389391845500.png

Enzon Pharmaceuticals is a biotechnology company engaged in the research and development of therapeutics for cancer patients primarily in the US. Its drug development programs utilize two platforms - Customized PEGylation Linker Technology and third-generation messenger ribonucleic acid antagonists utilizing the Locked Nucleic Acid technology.

Enzon's historical revenue and net income:

1389391983455.png

The analysis n Enzon reports that the company's revenue has been in decline over the past five years, its price is at a 10-year low and its Piotroski F-Score is currently high, indicating a healthy situation for the company.

The Peter Lynch Chart suggests that the company is currently undervalued:

1389392208380.png

Enzon Pharmaceuticals has a market cap of $50.238 million.  Its shares are currently trading at around $1.15 with a P/E ratio of 7.70, a P/S ratio of 1.54 and a P/B ratio of 2.50.

You can check out all of the guru's real time picks here.

Try a free 7-day premium membership trial here.


Also check out: Chris Davis Undervalued Stocks Chris Davis Top Growth Companies Chris Davis High Yield stocks, and Stocks that Chris Davis keeps buying Jean-Marie Eveillard Undervalued Stocks Jean-Marie Eveillard Top Growth Companies Jean-Marie Eveillard High Yield stocks, and Stocks that Jean-Marie Eveillard keeps buying

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